Who’s In The Race

Mail ballots are already reaching voters in California’s 16th Congressional District, and anyone who still needs to register online has until Monday, Oct. 19. The Silicon Valley seat, which spans parts of Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, pits Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-CA), a former two-term San José mayor seeking a second term, against Republican Peter Soulé, a businessman in his family’s steel company who served on the San José Civil Service Commission from 2007 to 2011. ​

Under California’s top-two system, the two leading vote-getters in the June 2 primary advanced regardless of party. Liccardo won about 76% of the vote. Soulé edged fellow Republican Kevin Johnson for second place by about 1,000 votes, 10.8% to 10.2%, while Jotham Stein, who listed no party preference, took about 3%.

What They Stand For

Liccardo has made housing his signature issue: four bills he led or co-led were folded into the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which became law July 13, and he backs a tax credit to convert empty office buildings into homes. “There was a housing crisis before Donald Trump became president,” he told the San Mateo Daily Journal, which also reported that he wants Congress to pass a war powers resolution to halt the war with Iran.

Soulé’s campaign says Democrats have made “life unaffordable by keeping energy and home prices artificially high.” He would withhold federal money from cities with sanctuary policies, ban “large financial institutions from buying single-family homes” and shield older homeowners from capital gains taxes when they sell. He also backs school choice, more water storage and changes to the Endangered Species Act to lower water costs for farmers.

The Money Behind The Race

Liccardo reported raising about $3.5 million from Jan. 1, 2025, through June 30 and had about $2.2 million in the bank, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Soulé reported raising $400 from Jan. 26 through June 30, and all of it was still on hand.

Race Outlook: Ratings And Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic as of Sept. 25, and Inside Elections gives it the same rating as of Oct. 2. Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls it Safe Democratic as of Sept. 29. On Kalshi, traders favored Democrats to hold the seat at about 96.1% as of the afternoon on Thursday, Oct. 8.

The last two November races here were between two Democrats: Anna Eshoo won about 58% against Rishi Kumar in 2022, and Liccardo won about 58% against Evan Low in 2024. Kamala Harris carried California with about 58% in 2024, when Democrats won 43 of the state’s 52 House seats.

Voters can register at their county elections office or a vote center through Election Day. Vote centers in both counties open Saturday, Oct. 24, mail ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, and polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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