What happened?

More than 71 million Americans who collect Social Security checks could see their benefits cut by about 22 percent in 2034 if Congress does not act, according to a report ordered by Congress that was published in June 2026.

The Congressional Research Service report projects that the combined Social Security trust fund will run dry in the third quarter of 2034. At that point, the program could only pay out what it collects in taxes each year, covering roughly 83 cents of every dollar owed to beneficiaries.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

Social Security is the federal government's largest program. It covers about 186 million workers who pay into it and sends monthly checks to more than 71 million retirees, disabled workers, and their families.

A 22 percent cut would be automatic, not a vote. It would happen by law the moment the trust fund hits zero, unless Congress changes the rules before then. For someone receiving $1,800 a month today, that would mean losing roughly $396 every month.

The retirement portion of the program faces pressure sooner. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which covers retirees and their families, is projected to run out in the fourth quarter of 2032, two years ahead of the combined fund deadline. The Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund, which covers disabled workers, is projected to remain solvent past 2100.

Both sides, now

The report lays out the math but does not prescribe a political solution. It identifies two levers Congress could pull: raise taxes or reduce benefits.

Acting now, the report says, would cost less. An immediate payroll tax increase of 4.25 percentage points, or an immediate benefit cut of 25 percent, would keep the program solvent for 75 years. Waiting until 2034 would require larger moves: a 4.90 percentage point tax increase or a 28.5 percent benefit cut.

The report notes that the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act worsened the program's long-range financial gap by an estimated 0.16 percent of payroll. The report does not assign blame or recommend a course of action; it presents the tradeoffs for lawmakers to weigh.

Supporters of tax increases argue the burden should fall on higher earners, since payroll taxes already fund the bulk of Social Security revenues. Supporters of benefit adjustments argue the program must be restructured to remain viable for younger workers paying in today.

What happens next?

No vote is scheduled, and Congress has not announced a plan to address the shortfall. The Congressional Research Service report states that acting sooner allows more generations to share the cost of any fix. The longer lawmakers wait, the fewer options remain and the steeper any single change would need to be. The 2032 OASI deadline gives Congress roughly six years before the retirement fund faces its own crunch point.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article