Who's In the Race

South Dakota's at-large U.S. House District heads to a Nov. 3 general election as an open seat, after Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) did not seek re-election. Republican Marty Jackley won the June 2 Republican primary with 79.18 percent of the vote, capturing 103,074 votes out of 130,174 cast. Democrat Nikki Gronli ran unopposed in the Democratic primary and advanced to the general election. [](#ngr-2a0a042f-5af7-4cb9-aec1-460368685963)

What They Stand For

Nikki Gronli (Democrat)

Gronli is a former South Dakota State Director for USDA Rural Development (2022–2025) and a Dell Rapids small business owner. Her website states: "No member of Congress should abdicate their duty to set fair tax policy, yes, tariffs are a tax." She has argued that broad tariff policies drive up grocery bills and inflation for South Dakota families.

Gronli has highlighted workforce shortages, the risk of clinic and hospital closures in small communities, prenatal care deserts, and rising prescription costs. She has also raised concern about the effect of government funding lapses on healthcare marketplace affordability for farmers and small business owners.

On agriculture, Gronli has emphasized protecting small and family farms from consolidation, arguing that farm consolidation leads to rural population decline, school closures, and loss of local economic infrastructure.

Her platform also includes honoring tribal sovereignty and the federal government's trust obligations to Native American tribes in South Dakota, and opposing proposed cuts to K-12 public school funding, which she has warned would accelerate rural school consolidation.

Marty Jackley (Republican)

Jackley is South Dakota's current Attorney General, having served in that role from 2009 to 2019 and again from 2023 to the present, with a gap in service between those two periods, and is a former U.S. Attorney. His campaign website states: "Secure the border, finish the wall, and let law enforcement do its job." He has cited drug interdiction operations tied to the southern border as part of his record on the issue.

On taxes and the size of government, Jackley has called for cutting taxes for working Americans and reducing federal regulations, framing his candidacy as support for the Trump economic agenda. He has also identified passing a new Farm Bill as a congressional priority, calling for fair markets, honest trade, and reduced federal red tape for farmers and ranchers. He owns a farm at Vale and a ranch near Pierre.

Jackley holds an A+ rating from the NRA and has pledged to defend the Second Amendment in Congress, stating on his issues page: "The right to keep and bear arms is not negotiable." He has also called for rebuilding national defense and pledged to back law enforcement with resources and support.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending records show $149,680 directed in support of the Republican nominee.

Two committees account for the full reported total: South Dakota Values PAC has spent $84,051, and Conservatives for American Excellence Inc. has spent $65,629.

An additional $61,309 in pending notices filed through Sept. 25 has not yet been restated in a periodic report, which would bring the potential total to $210,989.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this contest Solid Republican. The Cook Political Report issued that rating as of Sept. 11; Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Sept. 22; and Inside Elections as of Sept. 17.

On Kalshi, the prediction market, bettors as of Sept. 25 put the probability of a Republican win at 94 percent and a Democratic win at about six percent.

Republicans won all three federal congressional races held in 2022 and 2024, the at-large House seat and a U.S. Senate seat in 2022, and the at-large House seat again in 2024. In 2022, Dusty Johnson won the House seat with 77.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump carried South Dakota in the 2024 presidential race with 63.4 percent of the vote.

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