Who's In the Race

It looks like South Dakota will swing Republican in this year's Senate race. Sen. Mike Rounds, the incumbent Senator and a Republican, seems to be the frontrunner in South Dakota's Senate race. Rounds won his party's June 2 primary with 101,284 votes. The general election is now set for Nov. 3, where Rounds will face Brian Bengs, a veteran running as an independent.

What They Stand For

Rounds' campaign platform adresses border security, economic growth, agriculture, national security, and abortion restrictions as key positions.

On the border, his campaign website states that "border security is essential to national security" and frames stopping illegal drugs and human trafficking as a central commitment.

On the economy, Rounds emphasizes tax cuts and support for small businesses, with his campaign homepage highlighting "put[ting] money back into your pockets." The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed him based on his "record of support on pro-business issues."

Rounds also led the Promoting Agriculture Safeguards and Security (PASS) Act, which would ban foreign adversaries including China, Russia, and Iran from purchasing American farmland and agricultural businesses. His campaign platform explicitly includes "protecting ranchers and farmers," and he has argued that "protecting America's food supply, energy supply and national defense are not separate priorities: they reinforce one another."

On defense, Rounds invokes what his campaign calls "peace through strength." He serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and chairs its Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, and he secured South Dakota-specific provisions in the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act.

On abortion, Rounds co-led the Dismemberment Abortion Ban Act of 2026, introduced June 24, which would amend federal law to prohibit certain abortion procedures.

Bengs' website highlights his belief in "the founding values of our country," but does not mention specific legislation.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending records show $565,848 across 10 transactions directed in support of Rounds. The two committees comprising the donation are Defend American Jobs, which has spent $411, 748.5 on funding for Rounds, and the South Dakota Conservative PAC, which has spent $154,100.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this contest Solid Republican. Cook Political Report rated it Solid Republican as of Sept. 23; Sabato's Crystal Ball and the consensus rating both carried the same label as of Sept. 22; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Sept. 17.

Prediction market Kalshi gave Rounds a 99.6% chance of winning as of Sept. 28, based on $86,944 in market volume.

A Silver Bulletin polling average published through Sept. 9, based on 14 polls, showed Rounds leading Bengs 48.2% to 45.0%, with 6.8% undecided and a margin of error of 3.2%.

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