Who's In the Race

Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-TN) faces Democrat Kristi Burke, independents Billy Cody, Chris Campbell, Joshua Ray Ashburn, Richard G. Baker, and Tyler Brice Mitchell McClain in the November 3 general election in Tennessee's 1st Congressional District. Tennessee adopted new congressional district boundaries in May 2026, and voters will use the new map in this election. ​

Harshbarger is a licensed pharmacist and business owner who has represented the district in the U.S. House; her official biography says she worked in those fields for more than three decades. She ran unopposed in the Aug. 6 Republican primary.

Burke is a muralist and grassroots organizer who describes herself as a community member rather than a career politician. She won the Aug. 6 Democratic primary with about 77 percent of the vote, defeating runner-up David Kerr, who received about 12 percent.

What They Stand For

Harshbarger has advocated for strong border-security measures, including resuming construction of the border wall, according to her official House issues page. She's also supported:

  • Defending life,
  • Jobs and the economy,
  • Education; and
  • National security and Second Amendment rights.

Burke has proposed a universal, single-payer health care system, arguing that coverage should not depend on employment or ability to pay, according to her campaign website. She also supports:

  • Fully funding public education, protecting Title I, and providing universal school meals,
  • Shifting the tax burden away from working people and toward wealthy individuals and corporations, including ending corporate tax loopholes,
  • Protecting reproductive freedom, including access to abortion and birth control; and
  • Funding public clinics, expanding Medicaid and capping prescription-drug prices for rural East Tennessee, according to a Johnson City Press candidate questionnaire.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 17, Harshbarger had raised about $1.27 million and had about $1.99 million in the bank, while Burke had raised about $102,000 and had about $14,000 on hand, giving Harshbarger roughly 141 times as much cash. Harshbarger also carried about $1.46 million in debt, more than her cycle receipts, as of the same date. Outside groups spent about $13,797 supporting Harshbarger as of Oct. 20, all of it from the Freedom Caucus Fund.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three independent handicappers rate this a safe Republican hold. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Harshbarger, a 95.28% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 20.

The district's recent history supports that consensus. Harshbarger won the district with about 78 percent in 2024 and about 78 percent in 2022, a difference of less than a quarter of a percentage point between the two cycles. Republicans won eight of Tennessee's nine U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald J. Trump carried Tennessee with about 64 percent of the vote.

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