Tennessee's 5th District Primary

Two primaries in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District on Aug. 6 will set the stage for a November race that every major ratings outlet already calls a lock for Republicans. Republican incumbent Andy Ogles faces three challengers in his party's contest, while five Democrats compete for the right to face him in the fall. Voters in both primaries head to the polls in two days.

Tennessee runs a traditional partisan primary system. Republican and Democratic voters choose their nominees separately on the same date, with each party's winner advancing directly to the general election. There is no top-two or ranked-choice component. The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, and 11 candidates are currently listed on that ballot, spanning Republican, Democratic, independent, and other party lines.

The district is centered on the Nashville metropolitan area and stretches west toward Memphis, covering 17 counties after a redistricting that dramatically expanded its footprint. No prior general election results from the current district boundaries are available for comparison. What is available: a unanimous "Solid Republican" consensus from all three major ratings outlets, and prediction market odds that place the Republican nominee's chances of winning in November at 86%.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Ogles, first elected in 2022 and now seeking a third term, sits on the House Committee on Financial Services, including its Subcommittees on Capital Markets and Oversight and Investigations, and the House Committee on Homeland Security. His legislative record in the 119th Congress includes the Preserving Counterterrorism Capabilities Act of 2026 and the Ending Chemical Abortions Act of 2025.

His most credentialed challenger is Charlie Hatcher, a fifth-generation Tennessee dairy farmer, veterinarian, and former Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture under Gov. Bill Lee. Hatcher has earned the endorsement of former Gov. Bill Haslam and is running as a more pragmatic, agriculture-focused alternative to the incumbent.

Also on the Republican ballot: Patrick Smith and Micheal O'Leary.

Democratic Primary

Chaz Molder enters the Democratic primary as the field's clear frontrunner. The two-term mayor of Columbia, a city in Middle Tennessee, he has raised more than $1 million in campaign contributions, at times surpassing Ogles in the fundraising race. Molder has emphasized building a broad coalition across the newly expanded district.

Yolanda Cooper-Sutton brings a Memphis base to the contest. A Memphis City Council member representing Super District 8, Position 3, she has made federal regulation of data centers part of her platform, a reflection of the significant Memphis-area population now folded into the redrawn district.

Also on the Democratic ballot: Carrie Ann Iacomini, Rachel Hurley, DeVante R. Hill, Joyce Neal, and Jim Torino.

The Money Behind the Race

Across all candidates in the race, total raised reaches $4,717,958, according to FEC filings current through Aug. 3. Outside spending, by contrast, has been limited. Independent expenditures totaled $28,975 through July 1, with no communication costs reported.

All of that outside activity centers on one candidate: Ogles. The Freedom Caucus Fund leads all outside spenders with $25,270 in expenditures supporting the incumbent. The Club for Growth PAC has spent $3,641. Alliance for Accountability rounds out the field with $65 spent in opposition to Ogles: the only recorded outside spending against any candidate in the race.

In total, $28,910 in outside money has gone to support Ogles, and $65 has gone to oppose him. No outside spending has been recorded in connection with any other candidate, Republican or Democratic.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Tennessee's 5th District as Solid Republican. Cook issued that rating on July 16; Sabato on July 30; Inside Elections on June 30. The consensus rating, as of July 30, is Solid Republican across all three.

Prediction markets align with that assessment. On Kalshi, Republicans hold an 86% probability of winning the general election, with Democrats at 14%, based on $18,866 in trading volume as of Aug. 3.

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