Who's In the Race

Democrat Justin Pearson faces Republican Brent Taylor and independent Dennis Clark in the November 3 general election in Tennessee's 9th District. The seat is open: Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) announced he would not seek reelection after a May 2026 redistricting split Memphis among three districts, according to Roll Call. The new 9th District stretches from Memphis toward Nashville. ​

Pearson is a Tennessee state representative for District 86 who co-founded Memphis Community Against the Pipeline and became nationally known as part of the "Tennessee Three" after protesting for gun reform in the state legislature. He won the August 6 Democratic primary with about 66 percent of the vote over runner-up London Lamar, who received about 24 percent.

Taylor is a Tennessee state senator elected in 2022 who previously served on the Memphis City Council and Shelby County Commission, and describes himself as a small-business owner and conservative political leader. He won the August 6 Republican primary with about 46 percent of the vote, ahead of runner-up Todd Warner, who received about 26 percent.

What They Stand For

Pearson has proposed guaranteeing a job for every American through a federal jobs program, according to his campaign website. He's also supported Medicare for All and investment in rural hospitals and Veterans Affairs healthcare, commonsense gun safety laws, including permits to carry, an assault-rifle ban, background checks, and waiting periods, pausing hyperscale data-center construction until comprehensive health, environmental, and economic protections are enacted, and overturning Citizens United, banning congressional stock trading, and investigating what his campaign calls the "corrupt Trump administration."

Taylor has proposed fighting for the MAGA agenda and putting America First, including border enforcement, deporting criminal undocumented immigrants, expanding domestic energy, and defending parental rights, according to his campaign website. He's also supported cutting federal spending and regulations to bring down inflation and living costs, requiring data centers to pay their own energy-infrastructure costs, expanding domestic oil, natural gas, and nuclear power to lower costs and strengthen national security, eliminating what he calls wasteful federal programs, fraud, and ideological spending, opposing "bloated omnibus bills", and supporting tougher penalties and longer sentences for repeat violent offenders, and greater federal support for law enforcement.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 17, Justin Pearson had raised about $2.3 million and held about $845,000 in cash, while Brent Taylor had raised about $1.5 million, roughly $795,000 less, and held about $417,000 in cash. Taylor also carries $1 million in debt, leaving him with a net cash position of about-$583,000, while Pearson reports no debt. Outside groups have spent about $473,000 supporting Taylor and about $36,000 supporting Pearson as of October 16, a ratio of more than 13 to one in Taylor's favor. Conservatives for American Excellence Inc. accounts for about $468,000 of Taylor's outside support, or about 99 percent of it. The Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition Votes Action PAC spent about $18,000 supporting Justin J. Pearson.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of October 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of October 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of October 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans an 86.87 percent chance of winning as of October 16; Democrats were priced at 13.13 percent.

The district's recent history and the state's broader lean reinforce that picture. Steve Cohen won the 9th District with about 71 percent in 2024 and about 70 percent in 2022 — but those results came under the old map. The May 2026 redistricting that prompted Cohen's retirement reshaped the district significantly, stretching it from Memphis toward Nashville. Republicans have won eight of Tennessee's nine U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024.

Donald Trump carried Tennessee with about 64 percent of the vote in the 2024 presidential election. The combination of a redrawn map, a heavily Republican state, and unanimous pundit ratings pointing in the same direction makes this Tennessee congressional race one where Pearson would need to significantly outperform the district's new partisan baseline to prevail on November 3.

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