Tennessee, U.S. Senate Primary

Four Democrats will compete Aug. 6 in the Tennessee Senate primary 2026 to decide who faces Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty in November, a general election every major forecaster rates as a foregone conclusion. Hagerty runs unopposed in the Republican primary, making his renomination certain. The real contest is on the Democratic side, where four candidates vie for the right to challenge him statewide.

State, District Primary

The state runs a traditional partisan primary. Republican and Democratic voters choose their nominees separately on Aug. 6. The winners of each party primary advance to the general election on Nov. 3. Tennessee uses no top-two, jungle primary, or ranked-choice mechanism; plurality wins each party's nomination outright.

Hagerty is the sole candidate on the Republican primary ballot, so no vote is required to determine the GOP nominee. On the Democratic side, four candidates compete for the nomination. The general election ballot lists 17 candidates across all parties, including independents, though no major forecaster rates the race as competitive.

Hagerty was first elected in 2020 and is seeking his second term. The seat is not open.

The Candidates

Bill Hagerty (R) is the incumbent senator, first elected in 2020. He runs unopposed in the Republican primary.

On the Democratic side, four candidates are competing for the nomination:

Marquita Bradshaw is the best-known name in the Democratic field. She was the Democratic nominee for this same Senate seat in 2020, becoming the first Black woman nominated by a major party for U.S. Senate in Tennessee history. She ran that general election against Hagerty and lost.

Civil Miller-Watkins is also on the Aug. 6 ballot. The available data does not include biographical detail beyond the candidate's name and party affiliation.

Diana Onyejiaka and Maria Brewer are also running.

Together, all five primary candidates (one Republican and four Democrats) represent the full field heading into Aug. 6. The Democratic nominee will be determined by whichever candidate wins the most votes in the party primary.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in this race has flowed entirely in one direction. Federal Election Commission data through July 1 shows $721,132 in total independent expenditures, every dollar spent in support of Hagerty. No outside group has reported spending against any candidate, and no outside money has touched the Democratic primary in either direction.

Four committees account for the full total. The National Victory Action Fund leads with $275,000. Winning Right PAC reported $220,000. The Senate Conservatives Fund spent $168,392, and Senate Conservatives Action added $57,741. Those four committees together account for the entire $721,132.

All outside spending is classified as support, with zero in opposition spending recorded. No communication costs have been reported alongside the independent expenditures.

The Democratic candidates have drawn no reported outside spending. Across all candidates in the race, total fundraising reached $15,985,865, though the available data does not break that figure down by individual candidate.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this race Solid Republican. Cook's rating is current as of July 1; Sabato's Crystal Ball updated its rating July 30; Inside Elections last updated June 30. The consensus rating, aggregated as of July 30, is Solid Republican across all three outlets.

On Kalshi, as of Aug. 3, Republicans hold a 96.5% probability of winning the seat. Democrats sit at 3.5%. That market has seen roughly 33,100 contracts traded, reflecting broad agreement on the outcome.

The ratings and market odds apply to the general election matchup, not the Democratic primary itself. No major forecasting outlet has published primary-specific odds for the four-way Democratic contest. The Aug. 6 primary will determine which Democrat appears on the November ballot, but the forecasting consensus treats the general election result as settled regardless of who that nominee turns out to be.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article