Who's In the Race

Democrat Caitlin Rourk faces Republican Chris Gober in the Nov. 3 general election in Texas's 10th Congressional District. The seat is open because Rep. Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) is not seeking reelection. ​

Rourk is a U.S. Army officer who has served in the Texas Army National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve, including full-time work at the Guard's Joint Forces Headquarters in Austin supporting disaster and emergency responses such as COVID-19 and border mobilizations; she most recently led communications at Dell Technologies. She won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 61% of the vote over runner-up Dawn Marshall.

Gober is an attorney and entrepreneur who graduated from Texas A&M University and Harvard Law School, and he has worked on national- and border-security issues at the Justice Department, served as a lawyer for the Republican Party, and founded a conservative law practice. He won the March 3 Republican primary with about 51% of the vote over runner-up Ben Bius.

What They Stand For

Rourk has called for expanding access to affordable health care and lowering costs, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Strong public schools and investment in public education,
  • Fixing the immigration system and securing the border; and
  • Responsible foreign policy that keeps the country safe "without endless, costly wars" and ensures military force has a clear strategy for success, according to Community Impact.

Gober has proposed securing the border and empowering Texas law enforcement to fight cartels, drugs, violence, and gangs, according to his campaign website. He has also supported:

  • Cutting regulations, expanding small-business opportunities, supporting agriculture and energy, and making life more affordable, according to Community Impact,
  • Investment in defense and advanced technology to help Texas compete with China,
  • Strengthening rural health care so residents do not have to travel long distances for treatment; and
  • Expanding water and power infrastructure, streamlining permitting, and supporting domestic supply chains, according to Community Impact.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Gober had raised about $2.6 million and had about $120,000 in cash on hand, while Rourk had raised about $364,000 and had about $92,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Gober carried about $750,000 in debt as of that date, more than a quarter of his total receipts. Outside groups have spent about $1.6 million supporting Gober, led by American Mission at about $748,000, according to Federal Election Commission outside-spending records.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

All three major race-rating services view this as a safe Republican hold. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 90.51% chance of winning as of Oct. 15, while Democrats stood at 9.49%.

McCaul won the seat with 63.3% of the vote in 2022 and 63.6% in 2024. Statewide, Republicans won 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats winning the remaining 13. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56% of the vote.

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