The Race
Incumbent Republican Ronny Jackson is facing off against Democrat Mark Nair in Texas's 13th U.S. House District, with the general election set for November 3. This is a race where prediction markets tell a remarkably consistent story: Republicans are heavy favorites, and nearly everyone agrees.
Expert Ratings
The consensus from major election forecasters is crystal clear. Texas's 13th is rated "Solid Republican" as of mid-June, meaning the district leans so heavily toward the GOP that a Democratic victory would require a political earthquake. For context, "Solid" ratings are the forecasters' way of saying: this one's not really in play.
That assessment tracks with the primary results. Jackson dominated his Republican primary with 89.5% of the vote, pulling in 71,554 votes to easily fend off challenger Chasity Wedgeworth. On the Democratic side, Mark Nair ran unopposed in his primary, winning 100% of the vote but with far fewer total votes cast, a sign of the district's Republican tilt.
Prediction Markets
As of July 30, Kalshi gives Republicans a 96% chance of winning the seat. In other words, bettors are saying there's a 1-in-20 chance the Democrat pulls off the upset.
Experts vs. Markets
The expert forecasters and the prediction markets are telling the same story. Both say Jackson is winning this race.
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