The Race

Pete Sessions, the incumbent Republican, cruised through the March primary with 100% of GOP votes. The Democratic side was messier; no winner emerged from a crowded field, forcing a May runoff, where Casey Shepard won.

Ratings

Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all agree: this is Solid Republican territory. Republicans are heavily favored, and Democrats face an uphill climb.

Prediction Markets

Kalshi's odds tell a similar story, but with a sharper edge. As of June 29, Republicans sat at 83.51% to win, while Democrats languished at 16.49%.

Experts vs. Markets

Prediction markets and expert consensus both paint a Republican-favored race. But notice the gap: experts call it "solid," while bettors give Democrats a 16.49% shot. For now, Sessions looks safe. But in midterm race ratings and election prediction markets alike, safe doesn't mean certain.

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