Who's In the Race

Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX) faces Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott in the November 3 general election in Texas's 22nd District. Texas redrew its congressional district boundaries in August 2025, and voters will elect a representative under the new map this cycle. ​

Nehls is a former Fort Bend County sheriff who was elected to that office in 2012 and re-elected in 2016. He is also the incumbent U.S. representative for this district. He won the March 3 Republican primary with about 76 percent of the vote over runner-up Rebecca Clark.

Greene-Scott is a former teacher and attorney who served as Mayor Pro Tem of Iowa Colony, Texas, and has volunteered on voter-protection efforts. She won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 55 percent of the vote over runner-up Chris Fernandez.

The Republican primary drew 63,218 total votes versus 48,131 in the Democratic primary on the same date, a gap of about 15,000 votes.

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What They Stand For

Nehls has called for enforcing immigration law and argued that unchecked immigration threatens national security, according to his official House website. He has also supported:

  • Highway development, flood-risk management, and other transportation priorities for the district,
  • national security, which he names among his infrastructure priorities; and
  • calling infrastructure investment critical to the 22nd District and naming transportation challenges among his priorities.

Greene-Scott has proposed protecting the Affordable Care Act and expanding access to health coverage, saying "healthcare is a right, not a privilege," according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • A pathway to citizenship for people who came to the United States as children, paired with stronger border protections and faster immigration-case processing,
  • Boosting domestic production, expanding childcare access, promoting antitrust competition, lowering housing costs, and pursuing fairer tax policy to address affordability,
  • investing in American manufacturing, infrastructure, and job training to create good-paying jobs; and
  • Adequate VA funding, better care and oversight, and mental-health resources for veterans' families.

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Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Trever Nehls, a 94.55 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15; Democrats, whose nominee is Greene-Scott, stood at 5.45 percent.

The district's Republican lean has been remarkably stable: Troy Nehls won it with about 62 percent of the vote in both 2022 and 2024, a difference of less than a tenth of a percentage point across the two cycles. Republicans held 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, about 66 percent of the delegation, with no change in the partisan split across those two cycles. In the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump carried Texas with about 56 percent of the vote.

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