Who's In the Race

On Oct. 2, Texas Public Radio reported that Democrat Katy Padilla Stout criticized Republican Brandon Herrera's past online remarks as harmful, even when presented as jokes. Herrera's campaign manager also reportedly asked a journalist to leave a public campaign event. Stout, Herrera and independent Ben Mendoza face off Tuesday, Nov. 3, in Texas' 23rd Congressional District, stretching from San Antonio's western suburbs to Big Bend. ​

Stout, a San Antonio attorney specializing in child welfare and education law, won the Democratic primary with approximately 52%. Herrera, a gun-rights activist known as "The AK Guy," led the Republican primary with approximately 43%, ahead of incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who received approximately 42%. Gonzales subsequently withdrew from the runoff, making Herrera the nominee.

What They Stand For

Katy Padilla Stout supports affordable health care, strong public schools, and universal prekindergarten. She opposes a proposed border wall through Big Bend, citing environmental and community concerns, and advocates protecting public lands, clean water, and air quality. Stout also emphasizes lowering the cost of living and improving health care access, according to Texas Public Radio.

Brandon Herrera supports national concealed-carry reciprocity, opposes red-flag laws and favors funding firearms training for school employees. He supports additional Border Patrol personnel and surveillance technology but considers a physical wall unnecessary in Big Bend. He opposes new taxes, advocates reducing federal spending and supports congressional review of major regulations.

Herrera has opposed military action against Iran and favors withdrawing troops from Iraq and Syria absent a clear national interest. He also supports expanding veterans' access to physicians through Tricare.

The Money Behind the Race

Herrera reported $1.94 million in receipts, $309,023 in cash and $570,000 in debt through June 30, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Stout reported $484,915 in receipts and $171,373 in cash.

Outside groups reportedly spent $678,000 in Texas' 23rd District as of Oct. 8, including $416,000 opposing Herrera and $262,000 supporting candidates. Approximately $217,000 supported Gonzales before his withdrawal, while $45,000 supported Herrera. AB PAC reportedly spent $268,000 opposing a candidate.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rated the race Likely Republican as of Sept. 25, Sept. 29 and Oct. 2, respectively. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 62.75% chance of winning as of Oct. 8, compared with 37.25% for Democrats.

Gonzales won approximately 56% in 2022 and 62% in 2024. Republicans held 25 of Texas' 38 House seats after both elections. Trump carried Texas with approximately 56% in 2024.

Registration closed Oct. 5. Early voting runs Oct. 19-30. VoteTexas.gov says mail-ballot applications must be received by Oct. 23. Bexar County publishes local voting hours. Election Day polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., according to the Texas Secretary of State.

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