Who's In the Race

At a San Antonio rally on Oct. 7, President Donald Trump criticized Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) for remaining a Democrat after receiving a pardon and reiterated his endorsement of Republican challenger Tano Tijerina, according to USA Today. The two face off in one of the Texas congressional races drawing national attention, with Green Party candidate Marlon Gerardo Mx Duran also on the general-election ballot. ​

Cuellar has represented Texas's 28th District since 2005 and serves as a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee and the top Democrat on its Homeland Security Subcommittee. He won the Democratic primary with about 58 percent of the vote over Ricardo Villarreal. Tijerina has served as Webb County Judge since 2015 and previously played Minor League Baseball. He won the Republican primary with about 74 percent of the vote over Eileen Day.

What They Stand For

Cuellar has supported border security measures that include "modernizing land ports of entry" and security infrastructure rather than border walls, according to his official House website. He has supported "smart enforcement, efficient legal pathways" and deporting violent criminals while opposing mass detention of children and family separation, per his campaign website.

Cuellar also proposed the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act, arguing that tariffs raise prices on household essentials and that the money should be returned to families, according to his campaign website. He describes himself as an independent voice for South Texas who will challenge policies from either party when he believes they harm the district. He has supported domestic energy production, balancing U.S. energy needs with available domestic resources, according to his official House issues page.

Tijerina has called for securing the border, enforcing immigration laws and stopping illegal crossings while pursuing practical, bipartisan immigration reform, according to his campaign website. He has said he will fight to lower taxes for working families and small businesses, cut federal rules and curb wasteful spending, per his campaign website.

He has supported clear, fair cryptocurrency rules and says policy should protect financial privacy and keep innovation in the U.S., according to his campaign website. On data centers, he has pledged to protect local water, land and affordable power, saying communities need the facts before projects proceed. He has called for an "America First" foreign policy, including support for Israel and confronting hostile regimes that threaten U.S. security, per his campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings through June 30 show Cuellar raised about $2.2 million and had about $1.1 million in cash on hand, carrying about $301,000 in debt. Tijerina raised about $1.4 million through June 30 and had about $768,000 in the bank, with no reported debt.

Completed outside spending totaled $31,844 through Oct. 8, all of it supporting Democrat Henry Cuellar, and the National Association of Realtors accounted for $21,457 of that, while pending notices add about $1.67 million.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Lean Democratic" as of Sept. 25, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Lean Democratic" as of Sept. 29. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Cuellar, an 88 percent chance of winning as of the late afternoon on Oct. 8.

Cuellar won the district with about 57 percent in 2022 and about 53 percent in 2024. Republicans held 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats after both the 2022 and 2024 elections, with Democrats holding the remaining 13. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

The voter-registration deadline was Monday, Oct. 5; Texas does not offer online registration and same-day registration is not available. Mail-ballot applications must be received by Friday, Oct. 23. Early voting runs Monday through Friday, Oct. 19–23, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.; Saturday, Oct. 24, from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.; and Sunday, Oct. 25, from noon to 6 p.m., with additional early-voting days Monday through Friday, Oct. 26–30, according to the Webb County Elections Department. On Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., according to the Texas Secretary of State.

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