Who's In the Race

Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-TX) faces Republican Martha Fierro in the November 3 general election in Texas's 29th District. Texas redrew its congressional district boundaries in August 2025, and voters will use the new map in 2026, according to Ballotpedia. ​

Garcia has represented Texas's 29th Congressional District since January 2019, when she became the first Latina to represent the district; before Congress, she served in the Texas Senate and as Harris County Commissioner after serving as Houston City Controller. She won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 58 percent of the vote over runner-up Jarvis Johnson.

Fierro is a Houston-based pastor, nonprofit director, and small-business owner who describes herself as a wife and mother of five. She ran unopposed in the March 3 Republican primary.

What They Stand For

Garcia has proposed expanding access to affordable housing and helping first-time homebuyers, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Raising wages, expanding access to jobs with benefits, and strengthening career pathways as a supporter of organized labor,
  • The Women's Health Protection Act and access to abortion and IVF, saying women should make their own health-care decisions,
  • The John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act; and
  • A pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, expanding Temporary Protected Status, and reforming immigration policy, while opposing Operation Lone Star and the militarization of Texas border communities.

Fierro has called for policies to reduce inflationary pressure and make essentials such as groceries and housing more affordable, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Supporting law enforcement and Border Patrol to stop illegal crossings and combat human trafficking,
  • More affordable and accessible health care, emphasizing transparency, competition and patient choice; and
  • Parental involvement in education and safe school environments.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Garcia had raised about $987,000 and had about $201,000 in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings, while Fierro reported no receipts and no cash on hand through the same date. Outside groups have spent about $562,000 supporting Garcia, with no money opposing her and none spent on Fierro; the two largest spenders were Bold America at $270,000 and CHC BOLD PAC at about $244,000, which together account for about 91 percent of that total.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Garcia, a 97.92 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 16.

Garcia won the 29th District with about 71 percent of the vote in 2022 and about 65 percent in 2024. Her vote share fell about six percentage points between those two cycles. Republicans held 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats holding the remaining 13. Donald J. Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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