Who's In the Race

Republican Steve Toth faces Democrat Shaun Finnie in the Nov. 3 general election in Texas's 2nd Congressional District. The seat had been held by Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), who lost the Republican primary to Toth on March 3, according to the Texas Tribune. ​

Toth is a Texas state representative and small-business owner described by the Houston Chronicle as an ordained pastor who runs a pool-cleaning business. He won the Republican primary with about 56 percent of the vote, defeating Crenshaw, who took about 41 percent.

The Houston Chronicle describes Finnie as an investment banker and first-time candidate, and Ballotpedia reports that he earned degrees from Northwestern University and has worked in the energy sector. He ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, collecting all of the vote.

What They Stand For

Steve Toth lists securing the southern border as a priority on his campaign website.

  • Defending Second Amendment gun rights,
  • Opposing what his campaign calls "liberal indoctrination" in education,
  • Strengthening national security; and
  • Backing law enforcement and putting Americans first on taxes and tariffs.

Shaun Finnie has proposed expanding the Affordable Care Act to make healthcare more accessible and affordable. He's also supported:

  • Stronger and more affordable public education and childcare,
  • Reducing the federal debt,
  • Protecting women's healthcare; and
  • checks and balances in government, a priority listed by his campaign.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11, and Inside Elections called it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

Kalshi traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Toth, a 93.02 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13.

The district has voted Republican by wide margins in recent cycles: Dan Crenshaw won it with about 66 percent in both 2022 and 2024. In 2022, Republicans won 25 of the state's 38 U.S. House seats, and Democrats won 13. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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