Who's In the Race

Rep. John Carter (R-TX) faces Democrat Justin Early and Green Party candidate Greg Stoker in the Nov. 3 general election in Texas's 31st District. Texas enacted new congressional district boundaries in August 2025, which apply to the 2026 elections. ​

Carter has represented the district since 2003, previously serving as a Williamson County district court judge from 1981 to 2001. He won the Republican primary with about 60 percent of the vote over runner-up Valentina Gomez.

Early is a U.S. Army veteran who served as a paratrooper from 1998 to 2006 and works as a cybersecurity architect at Dell Technologies. He won the Democratic primary with about 58 percent of the vote over Stuart Whitlow.

Stoker is a U.S. Army Ranger and combat veteran who hosts the podcast *Colonial Outcasts* and works as a geopolitical analyst.

What They Stand For

Carter says on his official House site that "Texans know best what our educational needs and requirements are," and he supports protecting Social Security and Medicare while reducing federal spending, saying cuts should not come "at the expense" of those programs, as well as eliminating the "Cadillac tax," which he says burdens working Americans with health insurance.

Early says he will protect veterans from inadequate VA care, writing on his campaign website, "I'll never threaten the lives of our vets with crappy healthcare at the VA."

He also supports:

  • Making healthcare affordable so people do not have to leave work to cover medical bills;
  • Acting against threats to U.S. elections and protecting free and fair elections; and
  • Protecting Georgetown, Round Rock, and Central Texas from data centers, which he says can drive up local energy costs.

Stoker, the Green Party candidate, has opposed data centers on the grounds that they threaten Central Texas infrastructure and primarily benefit distant billionaires, and has supported stopping transmission lines, securing local water, expanding healthcare access, and opposing new wars.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Carter raised about $1.4 million through June 30 and had about $171,000 in cash on hand. Early raised about $124,000 through June 30 and had about $17,000 in the bank, carrying about $59,000 in debt. Stoker raised about $79,000 through June 30 and had about $12,000 in cash on hand.

Outside groups spent about $64,000 in the race as of Oct. 13, all of it in support of candidates rather than in opposition to them. The Conservative Future Fund spent about $55,000 supporting Carter, while Indivisible Project Inc. spent about $8,500 supporting Early.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

Kalshi traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Carter, a 95.52 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13; Democrats, whose nominee is Early, stood at 4.48 percent.

Carter won the 2022 general election with 100 percent of the vote and the 2024 general election with 64.43 percent. In 2022, Republicans won 25 of the state's 38 U.S. House seats, and Democrats won 13. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

The voter-registration deadline for the Nov. 3 election was Monday, Oct. 5. Early voting runs Monday, Oct. 19, through Friday, Oct. 30, at locations set by Williamson County; hours vary by site and date. Mail-ballot applications must be received by the early voting clerk by Friday, Oct. 23. Polls on Election Day are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

---

AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article