The Race
It's wide open in Texas's 32nd Congressional District. The seat is vacant, and the general election is set for November 3, 2026. The Republican primary has already crowned its winners: Ryan Binkley and Jace Yarbrough. On the Democratic side, the primary wrapped up with two candidates battling for the nomination.
Ratings
The district is rated as Solid Republican, according to the major rating outfits. That rating, current as of mid-June 2026, tells you what it sounds like: Republicans start with a commanding structural advantage here. This is not a toss-up; it's solid GOP territory, which means Democrats face an uphill climb despite their best efforts.
Prediction Markets
The Kalshi and Polymarket odds paint the same picture. As of June 29, 2026, betting markets gave Republicans a 78.43% probability of winning the seat, with Democrats at 21.57%. That's not a nail-biter. The Kalshi market was active too, with nearly 10,000 in trading volume, suggesting real money and real conviction behind those odds. Prediction markets vs polls often diverge, but here the bettors are singing the same tune as the analysts.
Experts vs. Markets
This is one of those moments when the expert raters and the prediction market odds are essentially locked in agreement. Both say Republicans hold a commanding edge. The Solid Republican rating translates almost directly to the 78% probability the markets are pricing in.
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