Who's In the Race

Vicente Gonzalez (the Democratic incumbent for ">Texas's 34th U.S. House District who won his primary on March 3 with 62.72 percent of the vote) is up against Republican nominee Eric Flores, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney who defeated five other candidates during the Democratic primary. [](#ngr-2698fbcd-f081-44ab-b038-ee26aed4bb25)

What They Stand For

Gonzalez's campaign centers on the cost of living, stating that "families across South Texas are feeling the pressure of rising everyday costs," including groceries, housing, energy, and transportation, and pledging to fight corporate price-gouging and lower prescription drug prices.

He also lists affordable healthcare access, veterans' benefits, public school investment, and equal rights as priorities on his campaign website. The campaign states he "forced the V.A. to deliver real care for South Texas veterans" and opposes cuts to seniors' earned benefits.

Flores's top stated priority is border security, drawing on his background prosecuting cartel-connected cases as a federal prosecutor, according to his campaign website. He also lists veterans' issues, revitalizing the local economy, protecting Social Security and Medicare, Second Amendment rights, U.S. energy independence, and public school funding as priorities, per his campaign site and news coverage of his campaign.

Flores has stated: "My priority is and will always be improving South Texan lives, and that includes by working to lower costs, protect Social Security and Medicare," according to Battleground Vote, a third-party voter guide citing his campaign.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have spent roughly $659,724 targeting the Republican side of the race and about $57,334 targeting the Democratic side, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) independent expenditure records. Across the race, outside groups have spent about $661,609 in support of candidates and $55,450 in opposition, per those same FEC records.

On the Republican side, the five outside committees with spending on record are Americans for Prosperity Action, Operation Guardian Support PAC, GOPAC Election Fund, Defending Main Street SuperPAC Inc., and Special Operations for America. Operation Guardian Support PAC ranks second at $167,750, behind AFP Action at $220,059.

GOPAC Election Fund spent $159,390, Defending Main Street SuperPAC Inc. spent $135,000, and Special Operations for America spent $20,000, rounding out the top five. These committee totals are indicative; the underlying FEC data includes additional expenditures not captured in this grouping, so other committees active in the race may not appear above.

Beyond what has already been reported, more than $3 million in additional outside spending is listed as pending in FEC notices through Sept. 24.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss-up as of Sept. 11, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic as of Sept. 22, and Inside Elections rates it a Toss-up as of Sept. 17. The consensus rating across those outlets, as of Sept. 23, is Lean Democratic.

On Kalshi, the prediction market gave Democrats an 84 percent chance of winning the seat and Republicans a 16 percent chance, as of Sept. 24, based on a market volume of 55,716 contracts.

The district has been competitive in recent cycles: Gonzalez won the seat in 2022 with 52.7 percent of the vote.

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