Texas's 35th House District: Can Democrats Crack a GOP Stronghold?
Show Us The Money
It's an open-seat brawl in one of Texas's most competitive corners. Texas's 35th U.S. House District is wide open in 2026, with the general election locked in for November 3. Republicans have fielded four candidates—Joshua Cortez, Ryan P. Krause, John Lujan, and Carlos De La Cruz Jr.—while Democrats counter with three: Whitney Masterson-Moyes, John Lira, and Johnny Garcia, plus Maureen Galindo. That's 14 candidates total fighting for one seat.
Expert Midterm Race Ratings: The Consensus View
The Cook Political Report consensus is crystal clear: this district leans red. The current midterm race ratings peg Texas's 35th as "Likely Republican," a designation that means Republicans are favored but Democrats aren't out of the game. That's a lean toward the GOP—not a lock, but a meaningful advantage.
Prediction Markets: Betting the Midterms
The money on Kalshi tells a similar story. As of late June, bettors gave Republicans a 56.86% probability of winning, while Democrats landed at 43.14%. That's a roughly 14-point spread in the GOP's favor—a comfortable cushion, but not a landslide probability.
The Payoff: When Experts and Bettors Align
Here's the neat part: the expert midterm race ratings and the prediction market odds are singing from the same hymn sheet. Both say Republicans are favored. Both suggest the race is competitive enough that a Democratic upset isn't fantasy. The consensus "Likely Republican" rating and Kalshi's 57% GOP probability are remarkably consistent—they're different ways of saying the same thing: lean right, but stay tuned.
The alignment suggests this isn't a race where insider knowledge and betting markets are at odds. Instead, it's a straightforward read: this is Republican territory, but the margin is narrow enough that turnout, candidate quality, and local issues could shift the outcome. For Democrats, it's a lift—but not impossible.
---
Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article