Who's In the Race

Republican Jon Bonck faces Democrat Melissa McDonough and Green Party candidate Alex McMenemy in the Nov. 3 general election for Texas's 38th Congressional District. The seat is open because Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) ran for U.S. Senate instead of seeking reelection, according to The Texas Tribune. ​

Bonck is a mortgage industry professional from the Greater Houston area who also serves as a deacon and Bible study teacher at Second Baptist Church. He won the May 26 Republican primary runoff with about 65% of the vote, defeating Shelley deZevallos.

McDonough has nearly 30 years of experience as a Realtor and 20 years as the owner of a real estate brokerage. She says she has lobbied Congress and the Texas Legislature on consumer protection and health care issues. She won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 52% of the vote, ahead of runner-up Marvalette Hunter.

What They Stand For

Bonck has proposed completing a border wall and ending what he calls an "invasion" at the southern border, according to his campaign website. He also supports protecting life from conception, with "no compromise," removing what he calls "woke curriculum" and "gender ideology" from schools while prioritizing parental authority, cutting government spending, and opposing what he describes as "blank checks for foreign wars."

McDonough supports expanding Medicaid and making health care more affordable, arguing that getting sick should not ruin a Texan's finances, according to her campaign website. She also supports abortion rights, arguing that women's health decisions should be made privately with a physician. On gun policy, she supports stronger background checks and secure firearm storage while opposing an outright gun ban. She has proposed making voting easier through expanded mail voting and more accessible polling locations, investing in renewable energy alongside fossil fuels, and pursuing consistent flood-mitigation policies.

McMenemy, a Tomball native and social justice advocate, supports free universal health care, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, raising the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour and banning congressional stock trading, according to his campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Bonck's campaign reported approximately $1.64 million in total receipts, including campaign loans, and $89,133 in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. His receipts were roughly 24 times McDonough's $66,929. McDonough reported $43,939 in cash on hand and $113,240 in outstanding debt, approximately 1.7 times her total receipts.

McMenemy reported approximately $9,900 in receipts and $806 in cash on hand through June 30, the lowest fundraising total among the three general-election candidates. Outside groups reported approximately $648,000 supporting Bonck and $44,000 opposing him through Sept. 30, according to the supplied FEC-derived figures. Defend American Jobs was the largest pro-Bonck spender, with about $348,000, while Fight to Win America Inc. led opposition spending with about $27,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections have classified Texas's 38th Congressional District as Solid Republican. The supplied ratings are dated Oct. 9, Oct. 11, and Oct. 2, respectively, though those update dates require confirmation. On Kalshi, the supplied Oct. 16 snapshot showed Republicans at 92.4% and Democrats at 7.6%, with reported market volume of 8,393. These figures reflect prices in a prediction market at a particular time, not official election results or a scientific poll.

The district has a history of Republican victories. Hunt won Texas's 38th Congressional District with about 62.95% of the vote in 2022 and 62.73% in 2024, a 0.22-point decline. Those results reflect the district boundaries in place during those elections and are not necessarily directly comparable with the electorate under the district's 2026 boundaries. Republicans won 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats in 2022, while Democrats won 13. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with approximately 56% of the statewide vote.

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