Who's In the Race

Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX) faces Democrat Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election in Texas's 4th Congressional District. The district will run under new congressional boundaries in 2026. ​

Fallon has represented the 4th District since 2021, previously serving in both the Texas House and Texas Senate. He graduated from the University of Notre Dame, served as an officer in the U.S. Air Force, and founded more than a dozen companies. He won the March 3 Republican primary with about 81 percent of the vote over Don Horn.

Pearce was born and raised in Plano, Texas, and built a career in mortgage, finance, and insurance, becoming a top national performer in mortgage loan origination. He won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 52 percent of the vote over Andrew Rubell. That four-point margin, 52 percent to 48 percent, was far narrower than Fallon's 61-point Republican primary win.

What They Stand For

Fallon has called the situation at the southern border a "Border Catastrophe," according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Strong U.S. national security, serving on the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, per his official House biography,
  • a Second Amendment position stating that it "Shall Not Be Infringed,"
  • Banning all vaccine mandates; and
  • A pro-life position on abortion.

Pearce has proposed Medicare for All, according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Treating housing as a human right and addressing affordability,
  • Expanding Social Security and opposing cuts to it,
  • Banning lobbying and overturning Citizens United, according to a Ballotpedia candidate survey; and
  • Prohibiting companies and corporations from buying and renting single-family homes, according to Ballotpedia.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, 2026, Pat Fallon had raised about $791,000, nearly 49 times the roughly $16,000 raised by Jason Pearce. Fallon held about $1.1 million in cash on hand through June 30, 2026, more than 525 times the $2,086 that challenger Jason Pearce had. Pearce's financial position is further strained: his debt of about $8,797 exceeded his cash on hand as of June 30.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major handicapper rates this one of the safest Republican seats in the country. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Fallon, a 96.09 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15, while Democrats, whose nominee is Pearce, stood at 3.91 percent.

The district's history backs that assessment. Fallon won the seat with about 67 percent in 2022 and about 68 percent in 2024, a gain of about 1.7 percentage points over that span. Republicans held 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, about 66 percent of the delegation. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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