Who's In the Race

Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa face each other in the general election on Nov. 3, 2026, in Texas. ​

Abbott is the incumbent governor has held the office since 2015. He won the Republican primary on March 3, 2026, taking 81.8 percent of the vote across a field of 11 candidates. That kind of dominant primary performance signals a unified party base heading into the fall. His nearest challenger, Pete Chambers, received 240,640 votes — Abbott's total of 1,764,924 was more than seven times that figure.

Hinojosa won the Democratic primary on the same date, collecting 1,289,576 votes, roughly 58.5 percent of the 2,203,671 Democratic primary votes cast. Her margin was solid but not overwhelming, reflecting a competitive field. Her closest competitor, Chris Bell, finished with 9.84 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Angela Villescaz at 6.84 percent, Patricia Abrego at 5.84 percent, and Bobby Cole at 5.11 percent.

The Democratic primary drew slightly more total votes than the Republican primary — 2,203,671 compared to 2,156,879, a difference of about 47,000 votes. That gap is modest, but it suggests Democratic enthusiasm in the primary was at least comparable to Republican turnout — a data point Hinojosa's campaign will likely point to as evidence of a competitive general election.

Race Outlook

Three major race-rating services all favor Abbott heading into November. The Cook Political Report rated the race "Lean Republican" as of Oct. 15; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Lean Republican" as of Oct. 9; and Inside Elections rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 2. The consensus rating, as of Oct. 1, is "Lean Republican." Inside Elections' slightly stronger "Likely Republican" call stands out — it suggests at least one major forecaster sees the race as less competitive than the other two do.

The polling picture is close but consistent with those ratings. According to the Legis1 polling average as of Oct. 21, Abbott leads Hinojosa 49.6 percent to 46.9 percent — a margin of 2.7 percentage points, based on 70 polls.

With Election Day less than two weeks out, the window for either candidate to significantly move the numbers is closing fast.

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