Who's In the Race

The race for Senate in Texas is one of the most closely watched midterm races this cycle. In a state that traditionally leans red, the Democrat candidate James Talarico is neck and neck against Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico won the Democratic primary with taking about 52 percent of the vote, while Paxton advanced through a May 26 Republican runoff, defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn with nearly 64 percent of the vote. [](#ngr-f5cd9dd8-5388-4e09-a2ef-45b551d6b2e8)

What They Stand For

James Talarico centers his campaign on anti-corruption and democracy reform. His campaign website states that "making progress on every other issue we care about — whether it's health care, education, or the cost of living — comes down to getting dark money out of our politics and making sure government is accountable to us."

On health care, Talarico opposes cuts to Medicaid and federal health programs, arguing such reductions would cause tens of thousands of preventable deaths. His campaign draws on his background as a former sixth-grade teacher in San Antonio to advocate for increased federal investment in public schools.

On the economy and energy, Talarico's campaign argues Texas can simultaneously grow its economy, lower costs for consumers, and address climate change, stating: "If any state can figure out how to grow our economy, lower costs, and combat climate change, it's Texas." He also supports expanding working-family tax credits such as the Child Tax Credit and combating corporate consolidation that raises consumer prices. On foreign policy, Talarico's campaign notes Texas holds the eighth-largest economy in the world, the largest U.S.-Mexico border, and the largest veteran population; he released a dedicated veterans policy plan in August 2026.

Ken Paxton makes border security his central issue. His campaign website states he will champion "securing the border and deporting illegal aliens" and supports completing the border wall, a position he contrasted with Cornyn's during the primary.

On fiscal policy, Paxton calls for cutting taxes as part of supporting President Trump's legislative agenda. On gun rights, his campaign states he has maintained a consistent "A" rating from the National Rifle Association and the Texas State Rifle Association, and he criticized Cornyn during the primary for supporting what Paxton characterized as "the worst gun control bill in decades."

Paxton's issues page lists "ending the weaponization of government" and "draining the Swamp" as legislative priorities, framing his campaign with the tagline: "They tried to take him down. Now, he's taking a sledgehammer to the D.C. Establishment." His companion campaign site also describes him as committed to "defending Second Amendment rights, protecting the unborn, and standing firm against the radical agenda in our schools and communities." In late August 2026, Paxton unveiled a four-point data center plan alongside his campaign's focus on energy development.

The Money Behind the Race

It skews heavily toward opposition spending rather than direct candidate support. Federal Election Commission filings show $49,546,575 spent opposing candidates in the race, compared with $14,766,575 spent in support — roughly $3.35 in opposition money for every $1 in support spending.

Outside spending targeting the Republican candidate totals $53,338,876, while spending targeting the Democratic candidate totals $10,186,720. Because a single expenditure can be counted against one candidate and in favor of the other, those two figures should not be added together.

The five largest outside spenders on record are Texans for a Conservative Majority ($35,406,731), Lone Star Rising PAC ($8,561,666), Lone Star Liberty PAC ($7,650,367), Conservative Texans PAC ($4,886,822), and Texans Demanding Accountability ($1,853,481).

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

All three major race-rating services call this a toss-up. The Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Sept. 23; Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it a Toss-up as of Sept. 22. Inside Elections rated it Lean Republican as of Sept. 17. The consensus rating across Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, as of Sept. 22, is Toss-up.

On the prediction market Kalshi, as of Sept. 24, Talarico held a 57 percent probability of winning, with Paxton at about 43 percent, across a market with more than 14 million contracts traded.

A polling average aggregated by 270toWin, as of Sept. 20, showed Talarico leading Paxton 47.8 percent to 44.8 percent, a three-point margin, with 7.4 percent undecided and a margin of error of three points.

That competitive picture runs against Texas's recent partisan history. In 2024, Republicans won 22 of 38 U.S. House races in Texas and the state's U.S. Senate contest, giving them 23 of 39 total federal congressional races that cycle. In that 2024 Senate race, Republican Ted Cruz won with about 53 percent of the vote. President Trump easily carried the state in 2024.

---

AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article