Who's In the Race

In the nation's most expensive Midterm race, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton, Libertarian Theodore E. Brown Jr and independent Jade Simmons in the November 3 general election in Texas's U.S. Senate race. The seat is held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who is not on the ballot after losing the Republican primary runoff to Paxton on May 26. ​

Talarico is a Texas state representative who has served since 2018 and is a former sixth-grade public school teacher in San Antonio. He won the March 3 Democratic primary with about 52% of the vote, defeating Jasmine Crockett, who received about 46%.

Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015, previously serving in the Texas House from 2003 to 2012 and the Texas Senate from 2013 to 2015. He won the May 26 Republican primary runoff with about 64% of the vote, defeating Cornyn, who received about 36%.

What They Stand For

Talarico has proposed fighting corruption and winning "power back for working people," according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • taxes and the cost of living,
  • his campaign lists public education among its key issues,
  • health care; and
  • immigration and border security.

Paxton has proposed cutting taxes and reducing federal debt, along with:

  • Securing the border, completing the border wall, and deporting undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes,
  • Taking on pharmaceutical and food companies and increasing transparency in public health,
  • Protecting gun rights, opposing abortion and opposing transgender women and girls in women's and girls' sports; and
  • Removing regulations he says harm energy companies and promoting U.S. manufacturing.

Brown, the Libertarian, has said government should be less involved in people's lives and has supported repealing the federal income tax and abolishing the Internal Revenue Service, according to his campaign website. Simmons, running as an independent, has described her vision as an economy and education system that rewards hard work while helping people in need, according to her campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Talarico had raised about $68.6 million and held about $21.5 million in cash on hand, roughly 7.4 times what he raised compared to Paxton, who had raised about $9.2 million and had about $1.8 million on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Outside groups have spent about $26.9 million opposing Paxton, with Texans for a Conservative Majority accounting for about $25.0 million of that total, or about 93 percent. Lone Star Rising PAC has also spent about $4.0 million supporting Talarico.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 12, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 15. On Kalshi as of Oct. 19, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Talarico, a 61.39% chance of winning the seat, while Republicans, whose nominee is Paxton, stood at 38.61%.

Texas has leaned Republican in recent federal elections. Republicans won 25 of the state's 38 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats winning the remaining 13 each cycle. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56% of the vote. In the 2024 Texas Senate race, Republican Ted Cruz won with about 53% of the vote. A Legis1 polling average as of Oct. 14 showed Talarico leading Paxton 48.5% to 45.8%, a margin of 2.7 points.

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