Virginia's 10th District Primary

Democratic incumbent Suhas Subramanyam heads into the Virginia 10th District primary on Aug. 4 without a challenger in his own party, while Republican Julie Perry runs uncontested on her side of the ballot. Both primaries are effectively formalities. The real contest arrives Nov. 3, when six candidates (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents) appear on the general election ballot in a district that every major race rater calls Solid Democratic.

Virginia's 10th Congressional District covers suburban Northern Virginia within the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. The district is one of 11 House seats Virginia sends to Congress.

Virginia uses a traditional partisan primary system. Registered voters participate in their own party's primary, and the Democratic and Republican nominees advance to a general election. There is no top-two or ranked-choice mechanism. Independent and third-party candidates reach the general election ballot through a separate process: the general election stage lists Democrats, Republicans, and independents among those competing Nov. 3.

Both party primaries fall on Aug. 4. Each party has fielded exactly one candidate at this stage, so neither primary will produce a contested vote. The general election follows on Nov. 3, with six active candidates currently listed on the ballot.

This is not an open seat. Subramanyam won the district in 2024, becoming the first Indian American to represent Virginia in Congress. He is running for a second term. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the seat Solid Democratic as of mid-to-late July 2026, a consensus that reflects the district's consistent lean in recent federal election cycles. No prior vote totals are available in the current data for a direct historical comparison, but the uniform Solid Democratic ratings across all three outlets signal the seat has not been meaningfully competitive in recent cycles.

The Candidates

Two candidates appear on the Aug. 4 primary ballots: one Democrat and one Republican, each running uncontested in their respective primary.

Suhas Subramanyam (Democrat, incumbent): Born in Houston in 1986, Subramanyam is an attorney and former White House technology policy advisor who worked under President Obama before joining several tech startups and founding his own business. He was first elected to the Virginia House of Delegates in 2019, later served in the Virginia State Senate, and then won the 10th Congressional District seat in 2024. In the 119th Congress, he sits on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (where he serves as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Military and Foreign Affairs) as well as the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology and the House Committee on Ethics. His legislative work has centered on government transparency and technology policy. He introduced the LEASH DOGE Act to increase oversight of the Department of Government Efficiency and has carried bills addressing data infrastructure risk and consumer prices.

Julie Perry (Republican): Perry is a Fairfax County Public Schools educator who previously ran as the GOP nominee for Virginia State Senate in District 36, which covers parts of Fairfax County including Centreville and Chantilly. She holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Maryland (2009) and a graduate degree from West Virginia University (2014). Her campaign focuses on education reform, parental rights, and fiscal accountability in schools. She has been critical of what she describes as wasteful federal education spending, administrative bloat, and diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in school districts. Perry runs unopposed in the Republican primary and would face Subramanyam in the November general election if she advances, as expected.

The Money Behind the Race

All candidates combined have raised $1,551,307 in this race. Outside spending, however, has been negligible. Through June 30, total independent expenditures reached $13.34, with no communication costs reported.

The sole outside spender on record is GiveGreen United Action, which accounts for the full $13.34. Every dollar of that spending supports Subramanyam. No outside money has been directed against any candidate in the race.

The absence of outside spending is consistent with what the ratings picture suggests: a district not considered competitive enough to draw independent expenditure campaigns from either party's aligned groups ahead of the primary.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Virginia's 10th Congressional District as Solid Democratic. Cook and Sabato last updated their ratings July 16; Inside Elections last updated its rating June 30. The consensus rating, which aggregates all three, was last updated July 23. The three outlets are in full agreement: no rater has placed the seat in a more competitive category.

Prediction markets align with that assessment. Kalshi gives Democrats a 95.4% probability of winning the seat and Republicans a 4.6% probability, based on $4,224 in trading volume as of July 26. With both primaries uncontested and the general election field set, the Aug. 4 balloting will determine nominees without suspense.

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