The Race

Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA) is seeking a full term representing Virginia's 11th Congressional District after winning a 2025 special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA). He faces Bree Fram, Stella Pekarsky, and Amy Roma in the Democratic primary on Aug. 4. Republicans have not fielded a candidate for the seat, making the Democratic nominee the overwhelming favorite heading into the Nov. 3 general election.

Virginia's 11th Congressional District covers much of Fairfax County and Northern Virginia's Washington suburbs. It has long been one of the Commonwealth's most reliably Democratic congressional districts.

The Candidates

James Walkinshaw (D-VA) has represented the district since winning the September 2025 special election. Before serving in Congress, he represented the Braddock District on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. In Congress, he serves on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and the House Committee on Homeland Security.

Bree Fram is a retired U.S. Space Force colonel and aerospace engineer whose campaign has focused on military service, public service and opposition to Trump administration policies. Stella Pekarsky has represented Virginia's 36th Senate District since 2024. She has centered her campaign on protecting federal workers and opposing Republican policies in Washington. Amy Roma is an attorney whose campaign emphasizes her experience in energy, national security and federal regulatory policy.

Show Us The Money

Outside groups have spent nearly $3 million on the race through June 30, according to Federal Election Commission data.

Oversight Action Fund accounted for the largest share of independent expenditures with approximately $1.72 million, followed by Protect Progress with roughly $1.03 million. Together, those two organizations were responsible for more than 90% of all reported outside spending.

Walkinshaw benefited from approximately $2.73 million in outside expenditures, almost all supporting his campaign. Stella Pekarsky received roughly $188,000 in outside spending, while Amy Roma benefited from about $44,000. No independent expenditures were reported supporting or opposing Bree Fram through June 30.

Ratings

The nation's leading election forecasters agree that Virginia's 11th Congressional District is safely Democratic. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the district Solid Democratic, indicating broad agreement that Democrats are expected to retain the seat regardless of the outcome of the Aug. 4 primary.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets also point to a decisive Democratic advantage. As of late July, Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 97.6% probability of winning Virginia's 11th Congressional District, compared with 2.4% for Republicans. At the time, the market had recorded approximately $4,195 in trading volume.

Experts vs. Markets

Professional election forecasters and prediction markets point to the same likely outcome in Virginia's 11th Congressional District.

While traditional race ratings classify the district as Solid Democratic, Kalshi assigns Democrats a 97.6% probability of victory. Both forecasting methods indicate the Democratic nominee will enter the general election as the overwhelming favorite in one of Virginia's safest Democratic districts.

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