The Race
Rick Larsen is running for re-election in one of the bluest corners of the Pacific Northwest. The incumbent Democrat is facing off against Republican Edwin H. Feller and fellow Democrats Tomas Scheel and Devin Hermanson in Washington's 2nd U.S. House District, with the general election set for November 3.
The race has drawn attention from prediction markets and 2026 midterms watchers, and the verdict is blunt: this district is Democratic territory.
Ratings
The consensus among the major forecasters is crystal clear. Washington's 2nd is rated as Solid Democratic as of mid-June, which translates to: Democrats should win this race unless something goes badly wrong. That's the kind of rating that makes Republicans think twice about spending money here, and Democrats sleep soundly at night.
Predictions Markets
On prediction markets 2026 midterms platforms, the numbers tell the same story, just with more specificity. Kalshi, one of the leading election betting markets, assigns a 96.12% probability to a Democratic victory in the district as of June 29. That leaves Republicans with just a 3.88% shot.
Experts vs. Market
Here's where it gets interesting: the expert raters and the bettors are essentially reading from the same playbook.
There's no daylight between the consensus "Solid Democratic" rating and Kalshi's near-certain Democratic probability. When forecasters and prediction markets align this tightly, it usually means the fundamentals are locked in: strong Democratic registration, favorable demographics, and an incumbent with staying power.
The 2026 House control odds in this district are about as settled as they come. Larsen's path to re-election looks well-paved, and the betting markets aren't hedging their bets. In a political landscape full of surprises, Washington's 2nd is one of the few races where the crystal ball and the oddsmakers are gazing in the same direction.
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