Who's In the Race

Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) faces Democrat Carmela Conroy in the November 3 general election in Washington's 5th District. ​

Baumgartner has represented the district since 2025, after serving eight years in the Washington State Senate and as Spokane County Treasurer. Before elected office, he worked as a U.S. State Department officer at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and later as a counternarcotics adviser in Afghanistan. He led the August 4 top-two primary with about 47 percent of the vote; Conroy was the runner-up with about 19 percent, according to Ballotpedia.

Conroy served as a Spokane County deputy prosecutor before joining the U.S. Foreign Service, where she was posted to Afghanistan, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan and Washington, D.C. She holds a law degree from the University of Washington School of Law and a graduate degree from the U.S. Naval War College. In the same August 4 primary, Conroy finished second with about 19 percent, ahead of independent Nate Powell, who received about 16 percent.

What They Stand For

Baumgartner has supported a patient-centered, affordable, and transparent health system with expanded access through measures such as telehealth, according to his official House website. He's also supported reducing inflation and curbing government spending, each state's right to determine its own abortion laws, lower taxes and free and fair trade, while describing tariffs as a possible "tool of diplomacy," according to Northwest Public Broadcasting's coverage of a Whitman College forum, and letting communities decide whether to accept data centers, opposing projects that shift water and electricity costs onto local utility customers.

Conroy has proposed lowering everyday costs and investing in housing, child care, education and infrastructure, according to her campaign website. She has also supported protecting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, lowering health-care costs and strengthening rural hospitals, expanding Medicaid coverage to young people through age 19, according to Northwest Public Broadcasting's coverage of the Whitman College forum, a more predictable trade regime, and her argument that tariffs are taxes on importers and that trade disruptions are raising costs, according to the same forum coverage, and letting local and state governments decide whether data-center projects belong in their communities.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 15, Baumgartner had raised about $1.7 million and had about $954,000 in the bank, while Conroy had raised about $396,000 and had about $74,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings; Baumgartner raised more than four times as much as Conroy and held nearly 13 times as much cash. Outside groups have spent about $207,000 opposing Baumgartner, with Together for Working People as the largest spender at about $147,000 and Fire House PAC contributing about $60,000; no outside money has been spent for or against Conroy.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the seat Solid Republican as of Oct. 9, Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11, and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2; the consensus rating stands at Likely Republican. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans an 86 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15, while Democrats stood at 14 percent.

Republicans have carried the district in each of the last two cycles: Cathy McMorris Rodgers won with about 60 percent in 2022, and Baumgartner won with about 61 percent in 2024, a gain of about one percentage point. In 2022, Democrats won eight of Washington's ten U.S. House seats, and Republicans won two. Democrat Kamala Harris carried Washington in the 2024 presidential election with about 57 percent of the vote. The 5th District, anchored in eastern Washington around Spokane, has bucked the statewide trend in recent cycles, and the ratings and market odds point toward the district holding that pattern in November.

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