Washington's 8th District Primary

Six candidates compete today in Washington's 8th Congressional District top-two primary. Still, Democratic incumbent Kim Schrier enters the August 4 vote with every major rating organization calling the seat safe for her party and prediction markets giving Democrats a 96% chance of winning in November.

Washington's 8th covers suburban and exurban communities east of Seattle, stretching across portions of King and Kittitas counties and into the Cascade foothills. The district sends a single representative to the U.S. House. It drew national attention in earlier cycles as a genuine battleground, but the three major race-rating organizations now unanimously classify it as solid Democratic territory.

Washington runs a nonpartisan top-two primary system, sometimes called a jungle primary, in which every candidate regardless of party appears on a single ballot open to all registered voters. The two candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. That structure means two Democrats or two Republicans could meet in November. Today's primary has six candidates on the ballot, both Democratic and Republican. The field will narrow to two before the November 3 general election.

The Candidates

Schrier faces challenger Keith Arnold in the primary race. Four Republican candidates are also fighting for the ballot: Trinh Ha, Bob Hagglund, Spencer Meline, and Andres Valleza.

Schrier has held the seat since first winning it in 2018, when the 8th was a newly created district. She is a pediatrician by training. Her committee assignments and specific legislative record highlights are not detailed in the available data for this cycle.

The Money Behind the Race

All six candidates combined raised $3,360,017 through the most recent filing period, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) records.

Outside spending in the race has been negligible. GiveGreen United Action spent $107 supporting Schrier, and Sierra Club Independent Action spent $10 supporting her, according to FEC independent expenditure records through July 1. Combined, those two groups account for all $117 in outside money reported in this race.

No outside group has spent a dollar opposing any candidate. No communication costs have been filed. Every cent of independent expenditure activity in this primary flows toward the Democratic incumbent.

That total, $117, is not a typo. Races rated solidly safe for one party routinely attract little outside money, and this one has drawn none of the six- or seven-figure independent expenditure campaigns that mark genuinely competitive House contests.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report rated the seat "Solid Democratic" as of July 16. Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections reached the same conclusion as of June 30.

Kalshi prediction markets back that assessment. As of August 3, Kalshi placed the Democratic win probability at 96.1%, with Republicans at 3.9%. The market had recorded $3,849 in trading volume, a modest figure consistent with a race where the outcome is not seriously in dispute.

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