Wisconsin's 4th District Primary

Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District covers most of the city of Milwaukee and several of its suburbs, one of the state's eight U.S. House seats. It's leaned Democratic for decades and is held by Rep. Gwen Moore (D-WI), who has represented it since 2005. Moore faces one Democratic primary challenger, Amy Donahue. A third Democrat, Asher Smale, had filed to run but later withdrew, according to Ballotpedia.

On the Republican side, Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers) are competing for the nomination, a rematch of their 2024 primary, when Rogers won with 71.2% to Nath's 28.4%. Independent Arthur Burks is currently the only confirmed candidate on the general election ballot outside the two primaries. Two other independents, Robert Raymond and Carlos Dixon, had filed but withdrew or were disqualified, per Ballotpedia.

Wisconsin runs an open primary: voters don't register by party, but each must choose one party's ballot on Aug. 11. The winners of the Democratic and Republican primaries advance to the general election on Nov. 3rd.

The Candidates

Democrats

Rep. Gwen Moore (D-WI) has represented the district for more than two decades and serves as Vice Ranking Member of the House Committee on Ways and Means, with subcommittee assignments on Social Security, Tax, and Work and Welfare. She also sits on the Joint Economic Committee. Moore has sponsored the Family Poverty is Not Child Neglect Act and the Veteran's Surviving Spouse Parity Act this Congress.

Amy Donahue, a clinical genetic counselor and former medical librarian, is running as a democratic socialist with the endorsement of the Wisconsin Electoral Socialists. Donahue, who uses they/them pronouns, is a founding member of the Milwaukee chapter of Healthcare Workers for Palestine and supports the "Block the Bombs" Act to limit U.S. weapons exports to Israel. Their platform also includes healthcare for all, taxing corporations and the wealthy, and regulating data centers. Donahue has framed the run as offering Democratic primary voters an alternative to a long-serving incumbent.

Republicans

Purnima Nath, an immigrant from India with an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, has worked as an engineer and a strategy and management consultant. She founded the nonprofit Spindle India and the IndiaFest Milwaukee festival, and has previously run for the Wisconsin Assembly, Milwaukee County executive, and Milwaukee County Board. She was elected secretary of the Republican Party of Milwaukee County and served as an alternate delegate to the 2024 Republican National Convention.

Tim Rogers, a Milwaukee native, is a newspaper and gift basket delivery driver, according to his campaign, with no prior elected experience. He's seeking the Republican nomination for a fifth consecutive election cycle after being the party's nominee in the last four general elections, never topping 23% of the vote against Moore.

The Money Behind the Race

Moore leads all candidates in fundraising by a wide margin. As of July 22, per FEC filings, Moore has raised $1,070,659 and spent $1,064,345, leaving $28,561 cash on hand. Donahue has raised $18,410 and spent $16,764, with $1,646 on hand.

On the Republican side, Nath has raised $1,925 and spent $3,057, leaving $5,479 on hand. Rogers has not reported any fundraising activity to the FEC, nor has Burks, who has yet to register a financial report at all. Independent Carlos Dixon, who has withdrawn from the race, filed a report showing no financial activity.

FEC data through July 22 shows total independent expenditures of $75, with no communication costs reported for the 2025 to 2026 cycle. Grassroots North Shore accounts for $65 of that total, split evenly between Moore and Donahue at $33 apiece; Sierra Club Independent Action spent $10 in support of Moore. That puts total outside support at $43 for Moore and $33 for Donahue. No opposition spending has been reported against any candidate, and no outside money has touched the Republican primary.

Ratings vs. Odds

The raters and the markets are telling the same story: Moore is a heavy favorite to return to D.C. Cook Political Report rates the general election Solid Democratic, a call it made as of July 16, 2026. Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball agree, at Solid Democratic and Safe Democratic respectively, per Ballotpedia's most recent tracking as of Aug. 4.

On Kalshi's market for the Democratic nomination, Moore is priced at 99% to Donahue's 1% (the contract also lists the withdrawn Smale at 1%, likely a lag in the market catching up to his exit). For the general election, Kalshi's WI-04 House winner market has Democrats at 98% and Republicans at 1.9%, on trading volume of 788 contracts, which the exchange still tags as low volume, as of 1:55 p.m. ET on Aug. 7.

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