Who's In the Race

Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) face each other in the Nov. 3 general election for Wisconsin governor. The seat is open because Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is not seeking reelection. ​

Both nominees won their Aug. 11 primaries, with Tiffany receiving 95.3% of the Republican vote and Crowley narrowly defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong (D-WI) in the Democratic contest. Crowley received 315,413 votes, or 39.8%, compared with Hong's 311,740 votes, or 39.3%, a margin of 3,673 votes.

Endorsements

The two nominees have drawn high-profile national backing from opposite ends of the political spectrum. Tiffany has drawn endorsements from President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson. Crowley has been endorsed by former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD).

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

The three major race-rating outlets have moved Wisconsin's governor's race toward Democrats in their final assessments, although they differ on the degree of the advantage.

Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race Lean Democratic. The Cook Political Report moved the race from Toss-up to Lean Democratic on Oct. 29, while Inside Elections shifted it from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic the same day. The changes reflect the forecasters' assessments of the candidates and political environment ahead of Election Day.

A polling average aggregated by Legis1 as of Oct. 23 shows Crowley leading Tiffany 49% to 44%, a margin of about 5 percentage points. More recent polling also shows Crowley ahead. An Oct. 14-22 Marquette Law School poll found Crowley leading Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.

Polling averages in Wisconsin have also understated Republican support in some previous close elections, making historical polling error relevant context for interpreting the results.

Previous Elections

In the 2024 presidential election, Trump carried Wisconsin over Harris, receiving approximately 49.6% of the vote to Harris' 48.7%, a margin of 29,397 votes. The result underscored the state's narrow partisan divide.

In the 2022 governor's race, Evers defeated Republican Tim Michels by 90,239 votes, receiving 51.1% of the vote to Michels' 47.8%. The contrast between Evers' approximately 3.4-point victory and Trump's narrow presidential win two years later illustrates Wisconsin's history of supporting candidates from different parties in statewide elections and provides context for the current contest.

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