Who's In the Race

Following Rep. Barry Moore's (R-AL) decision to run for Senate, Alabama's 1st Congressional District seat is open. Republican Jerry Carl and Democrat Clyde Jones are running. ​

Carl is a business owner and former Mobile County Commission president who served as the U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st District from 2021 to 2025. He won the May 19 Republican primary with about 40% of the vote, beating runner-up Rhett Marques, who received about 31%. Jones is a retired U.S. Army First Sergeant who served 21 years, including in Operation Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom II, and received the Bronze Star Medal; he most recently worked as a Process Safety Management Coordinator at FMC Corporation before retiring in May 2024.

What They Stand For

Carl has proposed supporting President Trump's "America First Agenda" and working alongside the president, according to his campaign website. He's also supported stronger border security, including building a border wall and hiring more Border Patrol agents, defending the Second Amendment and the right to keep and bear arms, a Balanced Budget Amendment and opposing what he describes as wasteful federal spending, and a "100% pro-life" position, opposing the use of taxpayer funds for abortions.

Jones has proposed expanding Medicaid and extending Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, saying "I believe in the expansion of Medicaid," according to his campaign website. He's also supported restoring congressional checks and balances and ensuring the executive branch is accountable to constitutional law, as well as overturning Citizens United, banning corporate PAC contributions and barring members of Congress and their families from stock trading. On immigration, he has stated that he supports immigration reform which includes a "straightforward path" to documentation for undocumented people while also supporting secure borders.

The Money Behind the Race

As of July 22, Republican Jerry Carl had raised about $1.2 million, 13.5 times the roughly $86,000 Democrat Clyde Jones had raised, and had about $367,000 in cash on hand to Jones's $28,000. Carl carries about $255,000 in debt, roughly a fifth of his total receipts. Outside groups have spent about $547,000 supporting Carl, according to FEC outside-spending records; Defend American Jobs is the largest spender, accounting for about 86% of the roughly $638,000 in total outside spending in the race.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race rater calls this seat Solid Republican: the Cook Political Report as of Oct. 9, Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Oct. 11, and Inside Elections as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 96.65% chance of winning as of Oct. 15.

The district's history supports these backings. Republican Jerry Carl won 83.6% of the vote in Alabama's 1st District in 2022, and Republican Barry Moore won 78.4% in 2024. Republicans have dominated Alabama's congressional delegation, winning six of the state's seven U.S. House seats in 2022 and five of seven in 2024. Nationwide, Donald Trump carried Alabama in the 2024 presidential election with about 65% of the vote.

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