Alaska's At-Large U.S. House District Primary

Alaska elects a single representative to Congress, and that representative is answerable to the entire state. The race for Alaska's at-large U.S. House seat encompasses all 735,706 residents across every borough, city, and remote community.

Republican Nick Begich III holds the seat and is running for reelection in a crowded field that reflects the state's political diversity. Other candidates include David Ambrose, Lady Donna Dutchess, John Foddrill, Ed Goldfarb, Eric Hafner, Bill Hill, Jim McDermott, Yaquelin Reynoso, David Richey, Melanie Salazar, Clay Strickland, John Brendan Williams, and Matthew Williams.

Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four primary system in which all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have reported $369,013 in total independent expenditures in the race as of August 13, with an additional $2,442,856 in pending expenditures that have been filed but not yet finalized. If those pending amounts are confirmed, total outside activity could reach roughly $2,811,869.

All confirmed outside spending to date is supportive, with no opposition spending against any candidate.

Wheel Dog PAC dominates the outside spending landscape. The group accounts for nearly all confirmed spending at $326,261 and has filed an additional $1,922,389 in pending expenditures that would dwarf every other outside player in the race.

Club for Growth PAC is the next largest confirmed spender at $21,179. Senate Conservatives Action has reported $10,803, followed by Senate Conservatives Fund at $6,949 and Freedom Caucus Fund at $3,821. Two committees, Defend American Jobs and SEIU COPE, have filed notices of pending spending but show no confirmed expenditures to date. Defend American Jobs has $508,142 in pending spending, while SEIU COPE has $8,703 pending.

By candidate, independent Bill Hill leads in outside support with $326,261 in confirmed spending, all from Wheel Dog PAC. He carries an additional $1,931,092 in pending outside spending, for a potential total of $2,257,353 if those amounts are confirmed.

Begich has received $42,752 in confirmed outside support, with an additional $511,764 pending, for a potential total of $554,515. All confirmed outside dollars are flowing to an independent and a Republican, with no confirmed outside spending directed toward any Democratic candidate in the race.

Ratings vs. Odds

All three major race raters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections) rate Alaska's at-large House seat as Likely Republican. Cook assigned the rating as of August 10, Sabato's as of July 30, and Inside Elections as of August 6.

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