Alaska U.S. Senate (Class II) Primary

Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race features a competitive 16-candidate field for a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18. The top four finishers will advance to the general election on November 3, where Alaska's ranked-choice voting system will determine the winner.

Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan is seeking a third term. He faces a crowded field that includes Mary Peltola, a former U.S. Representative and the first Alaska Native to serve in the House since 1972, running as a Democrat. Peltola served as Alaska's sole House member from 2022 until her defeat in 2024 and would become the first Native Alaskan member of the Senate if elected.

The race is rated a toss-up by major forecasters, with prediction markets showing Democrats holding a narrow edge as of mid-August. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the Alaska U.S. Senate race (Class II) as a toss-up as of August 5. Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican as of August 6. On Kalshi prediction markets, Democrats hold a 51.5% probability of winning the race as of August 13, with Republicans at 48.5%.

The Candidates

The race features an unusual dynamic with two Republican candidates named Dan Sullivan: incumbent Dan S. Sullivan of Anchorage and challenger Dan J. Sullivan of Petersburg. Other candidates include:

  • Mary Peltola (R)
  • David Bryan Leslie (R)
  • Carol Hafner (R)
  • Dustin Darden (R)
  • Fred Grauberger (D)
  • Gerald Heikes (D)
  • Richard Mayers (D)
  • Heather McElwain (D)
  • Richard Grayson (Green)
  • Scott Kohlhaas (Libertarian)
  • Earl D. "Skip" Southworth (Alaskan Party)
  • Sidney "Sid" Hill (Undeclared)
  • Reece Roberts (Nonpartisan)
  • Shirley Saucerman (Nonpartisan)

The Money Behind the Race

The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race has attracted substantial outside spending. Total independent expenditure spending reported through July 1 reached approximately $2.0 million, and pending 24/48-hour notices filed between August 1 and August 13 totaled $6.0 million. The race has raised a combined total of $30.3 million across all candidates and committees.

Last Frontier PAC reported $1,567,531 in spending through July 1. SLF PAC spent $410,002 in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race through July 1. North Star had $1.0 million in pending notices, Americans for Prosperity Action had $960,000 in pending notices, and Right for Alaska had $574,000 in pending notices in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race as of August 13. Indivisible Action has reported $15,476 in confirmed spending.

Last Frontier PAC directed $1.65 million in opposition spending against Democrat Peltola.

Democratic candidate David Bryan Leslie has $241,159 in pending expenditures directed against his campaign but no confirmed outside spending reported.

Among party committees and major donors, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) contributed $62,000 to the race. Individual donors include Howard Graham at $27,000, John K. Castle at $21,000, and Jay W. Faison at $20,000. The contribution data reflects approximately 31,492 documents falling outside the top contributor buckets, indicating the full picture of fundraising remains incomplete.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the Alaska U.S. Senate race (Class II) as a toss-up as of August 5. Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican as of August 6. The consensus rating as of August 5 is a toss-up.

On Kalshi prediction markets, Democrats hold a 51.5% win probability in the race as of August 13, with Republicans at 48.5%. The market recorded $531,688 in trading volume on the race. The race ticker is senateak-26.

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