Who's In the Race

Arizona's 1st Congressional District seat is open for 2026, with Democrat Amish Shah and Republican Jay Feely facing off in a general election set for Nov. 3. Shah won his party's primary on July 21, pulling 29,002 votes from a seven-candidate field. Feely won his primary the same day with 43,709 votes, about 49.8 percent of the Republican total, defeating two other candidates. [](#ngr-5800d774-449a-4d8f-97b0-891885bbb10e)

What They Stand For

Amish Shah (D)

Shah, an emergency physician at Mayo Clinic, centers his campaign on expanding healthcare coverage, protecting Medicare and Medicaid from cuts, and lowering prescription drug prices, specifically calling out price-gouging on medications like insulin. He describes himself as a champion of universal healthcare.

Shah supports reproductive freedom and has pledged to fight for federal protections for abortion access. His record in the Arizona state legislature includes efforts to protect access to the abortion pill and expand contraception access.

His public safety platform combines gun-violence reduction measures with full funding for law enforcement and first responders. He has questioned tax exemptions on firearm sales.

Shah has stated his support for securing the border and stopping fentanyl trafficking into Arizona communities, framing the opioid crisis as requiring both border enforcement and expanded addiction treatment.

Jay Feely (R)

Feely's official campaign website identifies the southern border as a top priority, calling for ending illegal immigration, stopping fentanyl flows, and supporting deportation of undocumented immigrants. He cites the Trump administration's approach as a model.

On the economy, Feely emphasizes reducing what his campaign describes as out-of-control federal spending and opposing federal mandates that he says hurt small businesses, families, and schools.

His issues page explicitly states he will defend Second Amendment rights and protect constitutional liberties broadly, framing federal overreach as a threat to individual freedoms.

Feely pledges strong support for law enforcement, including local police, Border Patrol, and ICE, tying public safety directly to border enforcement and immigration policy.

He also commits to protecting Arizona's water supply, standing up for the state's farmers and ranchers, and opposing federal mandates he says harm local communities, framing his role as being "a voice for the Valley, not the D.C. establishment."

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have filed $3,208,714 in spending opposing candidates in this race and $2,512,133 in spending supporting candidates, for a combined total of more than $5.7 million in independent expenditures.

Outside spending tied to Democratic-party candidates totals $3,318,445, compared with $990,843 tied to Republican-party candidates. That gap reflects a race where outside money has flowed heavily against the Democratic nominee Shah.

Federal Election Commission filings show $2.76 million in outside spending opposing Shah and $831,000 supporting Feely, while Shah has received $167,000 in support spending and Feely $28,000 in opposition spending.

The five leading outside spenders by total dollars, based on Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, are listed below. The leaderboard reflects combined support and opposition activity; individual committee direction is not available from this ranking.

  • Bold America — $1,970,053
  • Pro-Choice Majority Action — $1,295,053
  • Crush MAGA PAC — $642,314
  • American Mission — $616,449
  • CHC Bold PAC — $300,046

These five committees account for a portion of total outside spending; additional committees not listed here have also filed expenditures in this race.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The consensus race rating as of September 23 calls this contest Lean Democratic. The consensus rating, as of Sept. 23, edges to Lean Democratic.

On the prediction market Kalshi, as of Sept. 24, the Democratic candidate holds a 75 percent implied probability of winning, with the Republican at 25 percent.

This specific seat has been closely contested: in 2022, David Schweikert won it with just over 50 percent of the vote, and in 2024 he held it again with about 52 percent. Across all of Arizona's federal congressional races in both 2022 and 2024, Democrats and Republicans each won five seats per cycle, marking the state as genuinely competitive.

Donald Trump carried Arizona in the 2024 presidential election with 52.23 percent of the vote, giving Republicans a recent statewide foothold even as the congressional map stayed split.

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