Who's In the Race
Democrat Amish Shah faces Republican Jay Feely and Libertarian Monica Maria Alponte in the November 3 general election in Arizona's 1st District. The seat is open because Rep. David S. Schweikert (R-AZ) chose to run for governor rather than seek reelection to the House. The 2026 contest is a rematch: Shah lost to Schweikert in the 2024 general election.
Shah is an emergency medicine physician who served in the Arizona House of Representatives, where his campaign says he focused on teacher pay, small businesses, and public health. He won the July 21 Democratic primary with about 39% of the vote, a margin of five percentage points over runner-up Marlene Galán-Woods, who received about 34%.
Feely played 14 years in the NFL, including a stint with the Arizona Cardinals, and later worked as an NFL analyst for CBS, winning five Emmy Awards, according to his campaign. He won the July 21 Republican primary with about 50% of the vote, roughly 14 points ahead of runner-up Joseph Chaplik, who received about 36%.
What They Stand For
Shah has proposed rolling back tariffs and lowering the cost of groceries and other essentials, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:
- Expanding health coverage, protecting Medicare, and lowering prescription-drug prices,
- Codifying Roe v. Wade, saying "only a woman and her provider should make decisions" about reproductive health care,
- Measures to reduce gun violence, fund police, and stop fentanyl from crossing the border; and
- Seeking federal resources for drought resilience and fighting for Arizona's share of the Colorado River.
Feely has proposed finishing the border wall, supporting mass deportations of violent offenders, and backing Border Patrol and ICE, according to his campaign website. He also supports:
- Cutting regulations, extending Trump-era tax cuts, and expanding domestic manufacturing,
- Laws to prevent transgender girls and women from competing in women's sports,
- Protecting water rights, defending Second Amendment rights, and opposing federal mandates he considers harmful to families and schools; and
- Expanding oil, natural gas, and coal production and encouraging energy infrastructure development.
Alponte, a retired business owner and former political television talk-show co-host, has said she opposes U.S. involvement in foreign wars and foreign aid, and supports a constitutional amendment limiting House members to three terms.
The Money Behind the Race
Through July 31, Feely had raised about $2.5 million and had about $794,000 in the bank; through July 1, Shah had raised about $1.8 million and had about $402,000 on hand, giving Feely a cash advantage of roughly $393,000, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. Feely carried $330,000 in debt through that period, more than a tenth of his total receipts.
Outside groups have spent about $2,849,655 opposing Shah, with Bold America the largest completed spender against him at about $1,745,053, roughly 61 percent of that total. Support spending for Shah totals $169,082, and Physician Voices United accounts for $127,442 of that. Outside groups have spent about $831,147 supporting Feely, and American Mission accounted for about $616,449 of that total.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets
The Cook Political Report rated the race "Lean Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball called it a "Toss-up" as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections also rated it a "Toss-up" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Shah, an 80.2% chance of winning as of Oct. 19; Republicans, whose nominee is Feely, stood at 19.8%.
David Schweikert won the seat with about 50% of the vote in 2022 and about 52% in 2024. Republicans won six of Arizona's nine U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats taking the other three each cycle. Donald Trump carried Arizona in the 2024 presidential election with about 52% of the vote.
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