Who's In the Race

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is heading for a general election on Nov. 3, paving the way for a face off between Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez and Republican incumbent Eli Crane (R-AZ). Libertarian Curtis Goodwin is also on the ballot. ​

Crane has represented Arizona's 2nd Congressional District since 2023, after a 13-year Navy career that included five wartime deployments and three with SEAL Team 3; he and his wife co-founded a veteran-owned bottle-opener business in 2012 and sold it in 2022. Nez served as president of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023 and previously held seats on the Navajo Nation Council and the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.

What They Stand For

Crane's campaign says he supports finishing the border wall, hiring more immigration judges, and deploying technology to detect fentanyl at the border. He has called for cutting taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, and says he is working to lower costs and attract investment to Arizona. On energy, his campaign website says he opposes the Green New Deal and argues that wind and solar projects are unreliable and drive up utility bills. He has also said he is focused on improving healthcare in rural Arizona, supporting copper industry growth, and helping tribal entrepreneurs.

Nez's campaign website calls for lowering healthcare and housing costs for families and for long-term rural infrastructure investment, including support for farmers and ranchers. On natural resources, his campaign website frames water security and access to affordable, healthy food as central issues. He has also proposed addressing corruption and money in politics, protecting voting rights, and defending tribal sovereignty.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Crane raised about $9.5 million through July and had about $2.8 million in the bank, while Nez raised about $3.5 million through July and had about $1.9 million cash on hand.

Outside groups had spent about $964,000 in the race as of Oct. 8, with the bulk of that activity centered on Crane. About $960,000 of that total was directed at Crane's race, split between roughly $76,000 in support and about $884,000 in opposition spending against him. The largest outside spender was LCV Victory Fund, which put in about $502,000, all of it in opposition to Crane; Somos PAC spent about $382,000, also in opposition to Crane.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Likely Republican" as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Likely Republican" as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 69.39% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 8; Democrats stood at 30.61%.

Crane has carried the district in each of the last two cycles, winning with about 54% in 2022 and about 54% in 2024. Statewide, Republicans held six of Arizona's nine U.S. House seats after both the 2022 and 2024 elections, while nationwide, Donald Trump carried Arizona in the 2024 presidential election with about 52% of the vote.

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