Who's In the Race
Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs face each other in Arizona's governor's race on Nov. 3. Hobbs, a Democrat, is the incumbent and is running for reelection, so the seat is not open. Green Party nominee Risa Lombardo is also on the general election ballot.
All three nominees won their party primaries on July 21. Hobbs ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Biggs won the five-candidate Republican primary with 74 percent of the vote, beating his nearest rival by nearly 60 percentage points. Lombardo won the Green primary with 275 votes.
Endorsements
Hobbs and Biggs have each drawn support from prominent national and statewide figures.
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Hobbs for reelection. No other presidents or major statewide executive officials with sourced endorsements appear among Hobbs's backers in the heavyweight categories.
Biggs has collected backing from several prominent Republicans. President Donald Trump endorsed Biggs. Doug Ducey, a statewide official, has also endorsed Biggs. Trump and Ducey together give Biggs a roster of past Republican executives who have held the state's top office.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling
Independent race-watchers lean toward Hobbs, though they stop short of calling the race safe for her.
Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race Likely Democratic, updated Oct. 28. Cook Political Report rates it Lean Democratic, also updated Oct. 28. The consensus rating is Lean Democratic, updated Oct. 23. The two outlets agree that Hobbs holds an advantage, but Cook's Lean Democratic rating (one step below Likely) signals that forecasters see a path for Biggs if conditions shift.
A Legis1 polling average as of Oct. 20 shows Hobbs leading Biggs 50 percent to 41 percent, a margin of 9.2 points. A nine-point polling lead is consistent with the Lean-to-Likely Democratic range the raters assign, though polls can move in the final weeks of a campaign.
Previous Elections
Hobbs won the 2022 Arizona governor's race with 50 percent of the vote, defeating Republican Kari Lake by about 17,117 votes, a margin of less than one percentage point. That razor-thin finish is the backdrop for this rematch-free cycle: Lake is not on the 2026 ballot, but the closeness of 2022 is a reminder that Arizona statewide races can be decided by a sliver.
In the 2024 presidential election, Arizona backed Donald Trump with 52 percent of the vote over Democrat Kamala Harris's 47 percent, a margin of about 5.5 percentage points. That result shows Arizona trending toward Republicans at the presidential level, which gives Biggs a structural argument heading into November even as the governor's race ratings favor Hobbs. Whether the presidential lean translates to the governor's race depends on how many voters split their tickets, something Arizona has done before.
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