Who's In the Race

Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) faces Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November 3 general election in California's 33rd District. California uses a top-two primary system, in which the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. The district's boundaries changed under Proposition 50, approved November 5, 2025. ​

Aguilar, a fourth-generation San Bernardino County resident, served on the Redlands City Council from 2006 to 2010 and as Redlands mayor from 2010 to 2014. His House biography identifies him as Chair of the House Democratic Caucus in the 119th Congress. He won the June 2 top-two primary with about 54 percent of the vote, with Vargas finishing second at about 18 percent.

Vargas is the Chief Deputy City Clerk and elections official for the City of Colton and a lifelong District 33 resident; she also served on the Housing, Community, and Economic Development Policy Committee for the League of California Cities. She advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 17.5 percent of the vote, ahead of runner-up Tom Herman, who received 11.4 percent.

What They Stand For

Aguilar has proposed lowering the cost of living by addressing price gouging, tariffs, and health care affordability, according to the Southern California News Group questionnaire. He's also supported:

  • Expanding affordable housing and streamlining construction, including higher FHA loan limits and work on the ROAD to Housing Act,
  • A bipartisan approach to border security and process reform, along with pathways to citizenship for law-abiding immigrants and DACA recipients,
  • restoring Medicaid and SNAP funding and lowering prescription costs, including a $35 monthly insulin price, according to the KVCR candidate voter guide; and
  • opposing expanding offshore drilling in California and backing a transition to clean energy.

Vargas has proposed reducing the cost of living by cutting energy costs through emergency EPA waivers for gas, permitting reform, and grid modernization, according to the Southern California News Group questionnaire. She's also supported:

  • Federal permitting changes and federal land-policy reform to increase homebuilding,
  • A "fair, orderly process" for legal immigration while keeping violent offenders, traffickers, and predators from entering or remaining in the country,
  • Public safety surveillance cameras "in a responsible and limited capacity," with automatic deletion of collected data after a set time; and
  • Allowing data centers only with safeguards, including closed-loop cooling, developer-paid electrical substations, and locations away from residential neighborhoods.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major forecaster rates this seat solidly in Aguilar's favor. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Aguilar, a 94.22 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 15; Republicans, whose nominee is Vargas, stood at 5.78 percent.

The district's recent history reinforces that picture. Aguilar won the 2022 general with about 58 percent and the 2024 general with about 59 percent, a gain of about 1 percentage point. His 2024 vote share of about 59 percent tracked almost exactly with Kamala Harris's California presidential share of about 58 percent that same year. Democrats have dominated California's congressional delegation, winning 40 of the state's 52 U.S. House seats in 2022 and 43 in 2024. Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential race with about 58 percent of the vote.

---

AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article