The Race
Pete Aguilar, the Democratic incumbent, dominated the June primary with 64,068 votes out of 119,667 cast, a commanding 53.5% in a seven-candidate field. Republican Stephanie Vargas finished a distant second with 20.952 votes, capturing less than 18% of the primary electorate.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all agree: this district is rated as Solid Democratic.
Prediction Markets
On Kalshi, where real money rides on election outcomes, Democrats were given a 96.49% probability of victory as of late June.
Experts vs. Markets
Both the ratings and markets agree that Democrats are expected to win comfortably in November.
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