Who's In the Race

In separate Oct. 5 candidate questionnaires for the Orange County Register, Lou Correa opposed expanding offshore oil drilling off California's coast, while David Pan supported expanding it with environmental safeguards. Rep. Lou Correa (D-CA), who has held the seat since 2017, now faces Republican challenger David Pan, a UC Irvine professor of German, for California's 46th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. ​

Correa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with about 52 percent of the vote, with Pan finishing second with about 33 percent. The other candidates in the primary were Democrats Christian Mendez, Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato, and Frank Bahena.

What They Stand For

Correa has called immigration the district's most important issue and has supported a registry bill that would update the eligibility date for adjustment of status to 2019, recognizing immigrant workers' contributions, according to the Orange County Register questionnaire. He has supported keeping 30-year mortgages and federal programs for first-time homebuyers, and has proposed incentivizing local governments to build more housing. He has called for a legal right to opt out of personal-data sharing, explicit consent before data collection, and judicial warrants for government surveillance. He has opposed expanding offshore oil drilling off California's coast, citing risks to the ocean and food supply, and says he has cosponsored legislation for a permanent ban. He has said the U.S. should reverse health-care cuts and improve preventive care, coordination, and efforts to address fraud, waste, and abuse.

Pan has proposed phasing out welfare and entitlement programs and replacing them with a $16,000 annual universal basic income for people 21 and older, including $4,000 for a health savings account, according to the Orange County Register questionnaire. He has proposed privatizing Medicare and Medicaid and requiring providers to post prices, saying on his campaign website, "We would have universal health care in a totally private system." He has supported a secure border and legal immigration for people who complete vetting, along with a pathway to legal residence for law-abiding residents who contribute to the country. He has called for recruiting more police and enforcing laws, and has supported charter schools and school vouchers. He has supported expanding offshore oil drilling when economically productive, with environmental safeguards, and has said energy production should transition gradually through innovation, per the Orange County Register questionnaire.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Correa raised about $1.2 million through June 30 and had about $2.5 million in the bank. Pan raised about $81,000 through June 30 and had about $6,000 cash on hand, with about $33,000 in debt.

Outside groups spent about $107,000 in the race as of Oct. 8, all of it supporting Correa. The largest outside spender listed was Protect Progress, which put in about $107,000 in support of Correa.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Correa, a 97.7 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 8.

Correa won the district with about 62 percent in 2022 and about 63 percent in 2024. Democrats held 40 of California's 52 U.S. House seats after 2022 and 43 after 2024. Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential election with about 58 percent of the vote.

Voters in Orange County can register to vote by Monday, Oct. 19; online, mail, and in-person registration deadlines are all Oct. 19, though same-day and conditional registration is available through Election Day, Nov. 3, according to the California Secretary of State and the Orange County Registrar of Voters. The last day to request a replacement mail ballot is Tuesday, Oct. 27, per the Orange County Registrar of Voters. Early voting at Orange County vote centers runs Saturday, Oct. 24, through Friday, Oct. 30, and Saturday, Oct. 31, through Monday, Nov. 2, from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. both periods.

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