The Race
Lou Correa, the Democratic incumbent, is running for reelection in California's 46th U.S. House District against Republican David Pan. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Correa dominated the primary held on June 2, 2026, taking 52.0% of the vote to Pan's 32.9% in a four-candidate field.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate California's 46th as Solid/Safe Democratic.
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, 2026, prediction market odds give Democrats a 90.62% probability of winning the seat, with Republicans sitting at just 9.38%.
Experts vs. Markets
The 90.62% betting probability aligns neatly with what "Solid Democratic" signals in traditional analysis.
---
Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article