The Race
In California's 14th Congressional District, Aisha Wahab dominated the June primary with 59,052 votes, 38.3% of the vote, in a crowded field of nine candidates that drew 154,242 total ballots. Melissa Hernandez joins her with a tally of 26,479, or 17.2% of the vote.
Ratings
Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all agree: this is a Solid Democratic district. The seat is open with no incumbent running, which typically means more competitive primary battles but a clear pathway for the general election in November.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi and Polymarket odds as of late June price Democratic candidates at 97.96% to win, while Republicans sit at 2.04%.
Experts vs. Markets
Cook's "Solid Democratic" rating and the 97.96% Democratic probability from prediction markets show that the seat likely belongs to the Democrats.
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