The Race
Kevin Mullin, the Democratic incumbent, is running for reelection in California's 15th U.S. House District against Republican Charles Hoelter. The general election is set for November 3. Mullin dominated the primary on June 2, pulling 107,260 votes, more than three times Hoelter's 30,390, in a five-candidate field that drew 164,896 total ballots.
Ratings
The consensus from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball is crystal clear: California's 15th is rated as Solid Democratic. Translation? Mullin isn't just favored, he's the heavy favorite. This isn't a toss-up or even a "lean" situation.
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, betting markets gave Democrats a 94.91% probability of winning the seat.
Experts vs. Ratings
Mullin's three-to-one margin over his Republican opponent signals a district that leans heavily Democratic. Seven candidates competing in the general election could theoretically splinter the vote, but in a race this lopsided, fragmentation rarely matters.
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