The Race
California's 3rd U.S. House District is an open seat heading into the general election on November 3, 2026. The top two primary wrapped up on June 2, 2026, with Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera pulling 76,651 votes (34.3% of the field), while Republican Robb Tucker collected 66,804 votes (29.9%) in a crowded eight-candidate primary that drew 116,578 total voters.
Ratings
Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated CA-3 as Solid Democratic in mid-June. That means experts see this as a safe seat for the party.
Prediction Markets
As of July 9, Kalshi bettors priced the Democratic Party at 94.9% and the Republican Party at 5%.
Experts vs. Markets
When expert raters and prediction market traders agree, it's a sign of genuine confidence in the outcome: CA-3 is trending blue.
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