Who's In the Race

Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) faces Democrat Manny Rutinel in the November 3 general election in Colorado's 8th District. Evans, who defeated incumbent Yadira Caraveo in the 2024 race for the district, is one of the two listed 2026 nominees, along with Manny Rutinel. The district was created following the 2020 Census. ​

Evans served one term in the Colorado House beginning in 2023 before winning the congressional seat; he also served 12 years in the U.S. Army and Colorado Army National Guard as a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter pilot and company commander, and worked for more than a decade as an Arvada police officer. He ran unopposed in the June 30 Republican primary.

Rutinel is a trained attorney and economist who earned a law degree from Yale and a master's in economics from Johns Hopkins; he was appointed to the Colorado House of Representatives in 2023 to represent Adams County and won election to that seat in 2024. He won the June 30 Democratic primary with about 63 percent of the vote, defeating runner-up Shannon Bird, who received about 33 percent, a margin of more than 30 percentage points.

What They Stand For

Evans has proposed reducing the federal budget deficit by cutting spending on what he calls "frivolous government projects," according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Lowering the cost of living by reducing regulations he says drive up fuel costs and pursuing permitting reform,
  • Reducing regulations on housing construction, pointing to construction-defect liability and building codes as barriers to homeownership,
  • An "all of the above" energy approach covering oil, gas, wind and solar, with federal energy projects allowed to proceed without political interference; and
  • Prioritizing removal of people with criminal records at the border, describing his approach as "Secure the border, get the bad guys out, help the good guys," according to Colorado Public Radio's 2026 voter guide.

Rutinel has proposed lowering costs for families by expanding tax credits for working parents, closing corporate tax loopholes, and reducing prescription-drug, healthcare, and energy costs, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare, opposing benefit cuts or increases to the retirement age, and making the wealthy pay their fair share,
  • Expanding Medicare's ability to negotiate prescription prices and capping insulin at $35 a month for anyone who needs it,
  • Making housing more affordable and supporting paid family and medical leave, affordable child care, higher wages and workers' collective action; and
  • Comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for longtime residents and Dreamers, with enforcement focused on violent criminals, gang members and human traffickers.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Evans had raised about $5.4 million and had about $3.9 million in the bank, while Rutinel had raised about $4.3 million and had about $601,000 on hand, giving Evans a roughly 6.5-to-1 cash advantage, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Evans carried about $154,000 in debt through that date, well under a third of his receipts.

Outside groups have spent about $3.55 million supporting Rutinel and about $888,000 opposing him, with Latino Victory Fund giving $1 million in support of Rutinel. Women Vote led opposition spending against Rutinel at about $654,000.

Comparatively, outside groups spent about $456,000 supporting Evans and about $165,000 opposing him, with Americans for Prosperity Action the top pro-Evans spender at about $247,000 and Trust Brigade the largest group opposing him at about $141,000. Groups backing Rutinel with outside money outspent those opposing him by roughly four to one.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three independent handicappers all rate this race a toss-up. Cook Political Report rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Rutinel, an 83.17 percent chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 16.

Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat in 2022 with about 48 percent of the vote. Evans flipped it in 2024 with about 49 percent. Democrats won five of Colorado's eight U.S. House seats in 2022 but only four in 2024, a net loss of one seat.

At the presidential level, Colorado backed Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 with about 54 percent of the vote. The state's overall Democratic lean at the top of the ticket contrasts with the 8th District's record of swinging between the parties in back-to-back cycles.

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