The Race
Florida's 11th Congressional District is an open-seat race following Rep. Daniel Webster's (R-FL) decision not to seek re-election. Republicans will choose their nominee in the Aug. 18 primary, while Democrats will also hold a contested primary the same day. The winners will advance to the Nov. 3 general election. The district includes all of Sumter County, most of Lake County and part of western Orange County in Central Florida and has consistently favored Republicans in recent election cycles.
The Republican field includes Anthony Sabatini, Tim Wilkins, Mike Wilnau and Antonette Harmon, while Democrats Royal Webster, Barbie Harden Hall and Dan Williams are competing for their party's nomination.
Ratings
The nation's leading election forecasters agree that Florida's 11th Congressional District strongly favors Republicans. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Solid Republican, indicating broad agreement that Republicans are favored to retain the seat despite the retirement of the incumbent.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets also point to a Republican advantage. As of late June, Kalshi traders gave Republicans an 86.98% probability of winning Florida's 11th Congressional District, compared with 13.02% for Democrats. At the time, the market had recorded approximately 2,464 contracts traded.
Experts vs. Markets
Professional election forecasters and prediction markets point to the same likely outcome in Florida's 11th Congressional District. While traditional race ratings classify the district as Solid Republican, Kalshi assigns Republicans an 86.98% probability of victory. Both forecasting methods indicate the eventual Republican nominee enters the general election as the favorite, although the outcome of the Aug. 18 Republican primary remains unsettled.
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