Florida's 11th Congressional District Primary

Four Republicans and three Democrats compete today, Aug. 18, in Florida's 11th Congressional District primary, a race to determine who will face an uphill November fight against an incumbent Democrat in a seat every major forecaster rates as safe Republican territory.

Florida runs a traditional partisan primary system: registered Republicans vote in a separate primary from registered Democrats, each producing one nominee who advances to the general election Nov. 3. There is no top-two or ranked-choice component.

The seat is currently held by Democrat Royal Webster, who is running for reelection. Despite his incumbency, Cook Political Report rated the district Solid Republican as of July 16, Sabato's Crystal Ball followed with the same rating July 30, and Inside Elections matched that assessment Aug. 6. The consensus rating, as of Aug. 6, sits at Likely Republican.

The Republican Primary

Carey Baker enters the primary as the field's most credentialed candidate. He served 31 years in the Florida Army National Guard, including a combat deployment to Iraq, then spent a decade in the Florida Legislature (first in the Florida House, then the Florida Senate) from 2000 to 2010. He served as Lake County Property Appraiser from 2013 to 2025. Baker has earned the endorsement of the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police. He also picked up a boost when fellow Republican Anthony Sabatini suspended his campaign and endorsed Baker, citing Florida's resign-to-run law as the reason for his exit.

Joe Strada is positioning himself as an outsider. Born in Chicago and later relocating to Florida, Strada founded an air-conditioning business and pledged $5 million in personal funds when he entered the race. He has no prior elected-office experience.

Nizam Razack is a board-certified neurosurgeon, attorney, and healthcare entrepreneur who announced his candidacy in May 2026.

Tim Wilkins has drawn a notable congressional endorsement from Rep. Jack Bergman.

Antonette Harmon rounds out the Republican field.

Anthony Sabatini and Mike Wilnau both appear in candidate filings but did not qualify for the Aug. 18 ballot per the Florida Division of Elections.

The Democratic Primary

Incumbent Royal Webster seeks the Democratic nomination ahead of a general election in which his party enters as a significant underdog. Webster faces two challengers.

Barbie Harden Hall ran for this seat in 2024 and is back for a second attempt. Her platform focuses on lowering prescription drug prices, expanding Medicare services, and reducing federal student loan interest rates.

Dan Williams has centered his campaign on protecting seniors and has cited the importance of eliminating what he describes as a double tax on Social Security benefits.

James Pericola also competed in a primary debate aired by WESH that covered affordability and education issues alongside Hall and Williams.

The Money Behind the Race

All candidates combined have raised $7,391,959 in this race, according to FEC records through Aug. 10.

Outside spending tells a more complicated story. Confirmed independent expenditures total $64,404, all of it in support of Sabatini, who, as noted, did not qualify for the ballot. That money came entirely from Advance Liberty PAC. No opposition spending has been reported against any candidate.

An additional $1,183,224 in pending notices has been filed but not yet finalized in FEC periodic reports, which would bring total outside activity to roughly $1,247,629 if confirmed. The largest pending notice, $1,000,000, is tied to Democratic candidate Shawn Stefan Bettis, filed by a committee identified only as C00946087, whose name and type are not yet available in the record. Conservatives for American Excellence Inc. filed $183,224 in pending notices linked to Strada.

Among the top contributors to candidates in the race, five organizations each gave $10,000: the Amalgamated Transit Union's Committee on Political Education (COPE), the American Council of Engineering Companies political action committee (ACEC/PAC), the American Crystal Sugar Company Political Action Committee, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. PAC, and the United States Sugar Corporation Employee Stock Ownership Plan Political Action Committee. Individual donor David Marquard gave $8,500, and BNSF Railway Company RAILPAC contributed $7,500.

Ratings vs. Odds

All three major political ratings organizations that track congressional races classify this seat as Solid Republican. Cook Political Report issued that rating July 16, Sabato's Crystal Ball on July 30, and Inside Elections on Aug. 6. The consensus rating, drawn from those three sources, sits one step back at Likely Republican as of Aug. 6.

On the prediction markets, Kalshi gives Republicans an 83 percent chance of winning the general election seat against 17 percent for Democrats, based on $2,865 in trading volume as of Aug. 7.

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