Florida's 16th District Primary

Republicans and Democrats will compete in separate Aug. 18 primaries for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Vernon Buchanan in Florida's 16th Congressional District, opening the Southwest Florida seat for the first time in nearly two decades.

Buchanan, who has represented the region in Congress since 2007, announced Jan. 27 that he will retire at the end of his current term rather than seek reelection. The Republican primary features Sydney Gruters, Eddie Speir and Edward Pope, while Kelly Kirschner, Jan Schneider, Glenn Pearson, Tamika Lyles and Jon Harris are competing for the Democratic nomination.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Sydney Gruters worked for more than a decade in congressional offices, including for Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) and Buchanan, before serving as Florida state director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture during President Donald Trump's first administration. She later served as vice president of advancement and executive director of the New College Foundation.

Gruters enters the primary with Trump's endorsement and significant support from national and Florida conservative organizations. Her campaign has also attracted endorsements from Turning Point Action and firefighter and paramedic organizations across the district.

Eddie Speir founded Inspiration Academy, a private school in Bradenton, and previously challenged Buchanan in the 2024 Republican primary. He is making another bid for the seat following Buchanan's decision to retire.

Edward Pope is a businessman and Navy veteran who is also seeking the Republican nomination. Federal Election Commission records show that his campaign has been substantially financed through candidate loans.

Democratic Primary

Kelly Kirschner, a former mayor of Sarasota, is seeking the Democratic nomination. He previously served as president of the New College Foundation and has worked in education and international development. His campaign has received endorsements from organized labor and Democratic constituency organizations.

Jan Schneider is an attorney and longtime congressional candidate who challenged Buchanan in the 2024 general election. Her repeated campaigns for the seat give her extensive familiarity with the district and its electorate.

Tamika Lyles is also seeking the Democratic nomination and has built one of the better-funded Democratic campaigns in the field. Glenn Pearson is running in the Democratic primary and has established a federal campaign committee for the race. Jon Harris rounds out the Democratic primary field.

The Money Behind the Race

Sydney Gruters has built the largest candidate campaign account among the candidates for whom current Federal Election Commission summaries are available. Sydney Gruters for Congress reported $971,068 in total receipts through June 30. That included $867,568 from individual contributors, $96,500 from other political committees, and $7,000 in candidate contributions. Her campaign reported $132,806 in disbursements and entered July with $838,262 in cash on hand and no reported debt.

Eddie Speir's campaign reported $42,475 in total receipts through June 30, including $42,414 in individual contributions. His campaign reported $24,667 in disbursements and $18,469 in cash on hand. The committee also reported $125,202 in debt.

Edward Pope's campaign reported $36,748 in receipts through June 30, with most of its financing coming from candidate loans. His committee reported $13,711 in disbursements, $23,037 in cash on hand and $35,440 in debt.

Among Democrats, Tamika Lyles reported $121,150 in total receipts through June 30. Her campaign received $96,150 from individual contributors, while Lyles loaned the committee $25,000. The campaign spent $39,943 and entered July with $81,206 in cash on hand.

Glenn Pearson reported $41,376 in receipts through June 30, including $37,076 in individual contributions and a $4,000 candidate loan. His campaign reported $33,921 in disbursements and $8,779 in cash on hand.

Jan Schneider's campaign reported $21,271 in 2025-26 receipts in its FEC summary, including $17,870 in individual contributions and $3,401 in candidate contributions. Her committees entered the cycle with money carried over from previous campaigns.

Ratings vs. Odds

The major election forecasters agree that Republicans are favored to hold Florida's 16th Congressional District after Buchanan retires, although they differ somewhat over the degree of the Republican advantage.

Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the seat Solid Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Likely Republican. The ratings make the Republican nominee the favorite heading into the Nov. 3 general election but leave some disagreement among forecasters about how safely the seat sits in the GOP column.

On prediction markets, Kalshi also favors Republicans to retain the seat. The Aug. 18 primaries will first determine who gets the opportunity to succeed Buchanan. Gruters, Speir and Pope are competing for the Republican nomination, while Kirschner, Schneider, Pearson, Lyles and Harris are seeking the Democratic nomination.

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